BackgroundOptimal adherence to antiretroviral therapy is critical to prevent HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) epidemic. The objective of the study was to investigate the best performing adherence assessment method for predicting virological failure in resource-limited settings (RLS).MethodThis study was a single-centre prospective cohort, enrolling 220 HIV-infected adult patients attending an HIV/AIDS Care and Treatment Centre in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, in 2010. Pharmacy refill, self-report (via visual analog scale [VAS] and the Swiss HIV Cohort study-adherence questionnaire), pill count, and appointment keeping adherence measurements were taken.Univariate logistic regression (LR) was done to explore a cut-off that gives a better trade-off between sensitivity and specificity, and a higher area under the curve (AUC) based on receiver operating characteristic curve in predicting virological failure. Additionally, the adherence models were evaluated by fitting multivariate LR with stepwise functions, decision trees, and random forests models, assessing 10-fold multiple cross validation (MCV). Patient factors associated with virological failure were determined using LR.ResultsViral load measurements at baseline and one year after recruitment were available for 162 patients, of whom 55 (34%) had detectable viral load and 17 (10.5%) had immunological failure at one year after recruitment. The optimal cut-off points significantly predictive of virological failure were 95%, 80%, 95% and 90% for VAS, appointment keeping, pharmacy refill, and pill count adherence respectively. The AUC for these methods ranged from 0.52 to 0.61, with pharmacy refill giving the best performance at AUC 0.61.Multivariate logistic regression with boost stepwise MCV had higher AUC (0.64) compared to all univariate adherence models, except pharmacy refill adherence univariate model, which was comparable to the multivariate model (AUC = 0.64). Decision trees and random forests models were inferior to boost stepwise model.Pharmacy refill adherence (<95%) emerged as the best method for predicting virological failure. Other significant predictors in multivariate LR were having a baseline CD4 T lymphocytes count < 200 cells/μl, being unable to recall the diagnosis date, and a higher weight.ConclusionPharmacy refill has the potential to predict virological failure and to identify patients to be considered for viral load monitoring and HIVDR testing in RLS.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2458-14-1035) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

BackgroundAfrica has the highest burden of Sickle cell disease (SCD) but there are few large, systematic studies providing reliable descriptions of the disease spectrum. Tanzania, with 11,000 SCD births annually, established the Muhimbili Sickle Cell program aiming to improve understanding of SCD in Africa. We report the profile of SCD seen in the first 10 years at Muhimbili National Hospital (MNH).MethodsIndividuals seen at MNH known or suspected to have SCD were enrolled at clinic and laboratory testing for SCD, haematological and biochemical analyses done. Ethnicity was self-reported. Clinical and laboratory features of SCD were documented. Comparison was made with non-SCD population as well as within 3 different age groups (< 5, 5–17 and ≥ 18 years) within the SCD population.ResultsFrom 2004 to 2013, 6397 individuals, 3751 (58.6%) SCD patients, were enrolled, the majority (47.4%) in age group 5–17 years. There was variation in the geographical distribution of SCD. Individuals with SCD compared to non-SCD, had significantly lower blood pressure and peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2). SCD patients had higher prevalence of severe anemia, jaundice and desaturation (SpO2 < 95%) as well as higher levels of reticulocytes, white blood cells, platelets and fetal hemoglobin. The main causes of hospitalization for SCD within a 12-month period preceding enrolment were pain (adults), and fever and severe anemia (children). When clinical and laboratory features were compared in SCD within 3 age groups, there was a progressive decrease in the prevalence of splenic enlargement and an increase in prevalence of jaundice. Furthermore, there were significant differences with monotonic trends across age groups in SpO2, hematological and biochemical parameters.ConclusionThis report confirms that the wide spectrum of clinical expression of SCD observed elsewhere is also present in Tanzania, with non-uniform geographical distribution across the country. Age-specific analysis is consistent with different disease-patterns across the lifespan.

BackgroundWe investigated gender differences in treatment outcome during first line antiretroviral treatment (ART) in a hospital setting in Tanzania, assessing clinical, social demographic, virological and immunological factors.MethodsWe conducted a cohort study involving HIV infected patients scheduled to start ART and followed up to 1 year on ART. Structured questionnaires and patients file review were used to collect information and blood was collected for CD4 and viral load testing. Gender differences were assessed using Kruskal-Wallis test and chi-square test for continuous and categorical data respectively. Survival distributions for male and female patients were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using Cox proportional hazards models.ResultsOf 234 patients recruited in this study, 70% were females. At baseline, women had significantly lower education level; lower monthly income, lower knowledge on ARV, less advanced HIV disease (33% women; 47% men started ART at WHO stage IV, p = 0.04), higher CD4 cell count (median 149 for women, 102 for men, p = 0.02) and higher BMI (p = 0.002). After 1 year of standard ART, a higher proportion of females survived although this was not significant, a significantly higher proportion of females had undetectable plasma viral load (69% women, 45% men, p = 0.003), however females ended at a comparable CD4 cell count (median CD4, 312 women; 321 men) signifying a worse CD4 cell increase (p = 0.05), even though they still had a higher BMI (p = 0.02). The unadjusted relative hazard for death for men compared to women was 1.94. After correcting for confounding factors, the Cox proportional hazards showed no significant difference in the survival rate (relative hazard 1.02).ConclusionWe observed women were starting treatment at a less advanced disease stage, but they had a lower socioeconomical status. After one year, both men and women had similar clinical and immunological conditions. It is not clear why women lose their immunological advantage over men despite a better virological treatment response. We recommend continuous follow up of this and more cohorts of patients to better understand the underlying causes for these differences and whether this will translate also in longer term differences.