Purpose Current clinical prognostic factors are not accurate enough to identify and monitor those muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) patients at high risk of progression after radical cystectomy (RC). Here, we determined genetic alterations in the tumor and circulating tumor cell (CTC) enumeration to find biomarkers useful for the management of MIBC after RC. Methods Thirty-nine MIBC patients undergoing RC were included. Tumoral tissue DNA was analyzed by next generation sequencing. CTCs were isolated from blood collected before RC and one, four and 12 months later. Results Sixteen (41%) patients progressed in a median time of 8.5 months and 11 (69%) of these patients harbored the TERT c.-124C > T mutation. All progressive patients harboring the TERT c.-124C > T mutation presented a significant increase in CTC number 12 months after RC compared to those without the mutation. Additionally, CTC number at 12 months was identified as an independent prognostic biomarker for tumor progression and cancer specific survival (CSS). Ten (63%) progressive patients showed an increment of CTC number with a median anticipation period of four months compared with imaging techniques. Conclusions The TERT c.-124C > T mutation could be considered a biomarker of aggressivity. CTC enumeration is a useful tool for identifying MIBC patients at high risk of progression and CSS after RC and for detecting tumor progression earlier than imaging techniques.

Cell-free DNA (cfDNA) has recently emerged as a real-time biomarker for diagnosis, monitoring and prediction of therapy response in tumoral disease. Here, we evaluated cfDNA as a prognostic biomarker for monitoring muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) patients at different follow-up time points. Blood samples from 37 MIBC patients who underwent radical cystectomy (RC) were collected at cystectomy and 1, 4, 12 and 24 months later. Plasma cfDNA amount and fragmentation patterns were determined. Four mutations were analyzed in cfDNA to detect circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) during patient follow-up. During a median follow-up of 36 months, 46% of patients progressed; median time to progression was 10 months. cfDNA levels and ctDNA status four months after RC were identified as independent prognostic biomarkers of tumor progression (HR 5.290; p = 0.033) and cancer-specific survival (HR 4.199; p = 0.038), respectively. Furthermore, ctDNA clearance four months after RC was significantly associated with patients’ clinical outcomes. In conclusion, cfDNA levels and ctDNA status four months after RC have prognostic implications in MIBC patients. In addition, cfDNA monitoring is useful to predict patient outcomes after RC. cfDNA analysis in the clinical setting could greatly improve MIBC patient management.