Ocean warming is expected to impact biodiversity and fisheries in the tropics through shifts in species' distributions, leading to local extinctions and changes in species composition of catches. However, regional-scale patterns may differ from global trends due to the influence of important environmental factors such as ocean warming, fishing and habitat availability. Here, we used the mean temperature of the catch to test the hypothesis that, for the period of 1971 to 2010, regional variation in species-turnover of exploited reef fish assemblages among 9 Caribbean countries can be explained by differences in the rate of warming, species' thermal preferences, changes in trophic structure due to fishing and potential reef habitat across the region. Sea surface temperature and the mean temperature of the catch displayed rates of increase of 0.14 and 0.19°C decade −1 respectively, on par with the global average and higher when compared to the global average for all tropical fisheries. These rates also varied across the 9 Caribbean countries, ranging from 0.04 to 0.18°C decade −1 for sea surface temperature and 0.10 to 0.62°C decade −1 for the mean temperature of the catch. The negative interaction between potential reef habitats in each country and sea surface temperature in relation to the mean temperature of the catch suggests possible moderating effects of available habitats on the sensitivity of fish communities to warming. In addition, the negative relationship of trophic level with the mean temperature of the catch suggests that fishing increases their vulnerability. Findings from this study can help elucidate factors driving variations in the sensitivity of exploited fish communities to warming, and have implications for the management of living marine resources in the Caribbean region.

The environmental effects of climate change are expected to impact fisheries, and related economies, and represent a significant challenge for the development of government policy. The impact of ocean warming on fisheries yields is of particular concern. The effect of sea surface temperature (SST) on fisheries in three distinct biogeographic areas (north‐western, NW; south‐western, SW; and south, S) and different fleet sectors (trawl, seine, and multi‐gear) of the Portuguese coast was examined. The mean temperature of the catch (MTC) was applied to the official landings statistics to assess the effect of global warming on the exploited marine communities. MTC increased from 16.9, 16.7, and 17.4°C in 1989 to 17.9, 18.1, and 18.3°C in 2009, whereas the linear rate of MTC increase was 0.54, 0.49, and 0.70°C per decade in the NW, SW, and S regions, respectively. The increase of warmer species in fisheries landings is regional‐specific. The percentage increases in landings of warmer water species increased significantly from north to south: 5.1, 6.7, and 18% per decade in the NW, SW, and S, respectively. The results confirmed that ocean warming has affected the composition of fisheries landings (of warmer and colder species) in the three regions of the Portuguese coast. The results highlight the importance and urgency of considering the temperature‐induced shift in species distribution in fisheries management.

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