The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term "country" in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.

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Labor Mobility and Remittances in Asia and the Pacific during and after the COVID-19 Pandemic LABOR MOBILITY DURING THE PANDEMIC: MASS RETURN AND SLOW DEPLOYMENTThe coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has affected cross-border movement of workers on at least two major fronts. First, to limit the contagion, many countries have resorted to lockdowns, strict border closures, and travel restrictions and bans, which brought cross-border labor mobility to a halt. Second, the contraction of economic activity at the height of the pandemic led to job cuts and reduced working hours in many destination economies, producing large-scale return migration while also curtailing the new deployment of migrant workers. This ADB brief is an update to the two ADB publications released since the onset of the COVID-19 crisis, 1 reporting on the impact of the pandemic on labor mobility and remittances in the region. 2 This brief discusses key trends observed during the earlier part of 2021 and presents estimated global and regional remittance inflows for 2021 and 2022 based on the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. With many economies showing signs of more 1The authors would like to thank Paul Vandenberg and Pinsuda Alexander for their comments to the draft. 2 Takenaka et al. ( 2020) discussed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on international migration, remittances, and the recipient households in developing Asia along with the estimated remittance inflows to the region for 2020. Meanwhile, Takenaka, Kim, and Gaspar (2021) discussed the factors that have kept remittance inflows in many developing Asian economies afloat in 2020 despite the severity of conditions and the economic downturn during the pandemic.

The economic recession from the COVID-19 pandemic threatens the job security and well-being of over 91 million international migrants from Asia and the Pacific. • Total remittances to Asia are expected to drop between $31.4 billion (baseline scenario) and $54.3 billion (worst-case scenario) in 2020, equivalent to 11.5% and 19.8% of baseline remittances, respectively.

Using the Burke, Hsiang, and Miguel (2015) [1] framework, we examine the nonlinear response effect of economic growth to historic temperature and precipitation fluctuations. We confirm that aside from the significant effect of rising temperature on agricultural production, industrial production and investment endeavors also serve as other potential channels through which temperature significantly affects overall economic productivity. We find the overall economic productivity of developing Asia to be at least 10% lower by 2100 relative to business as usual. We also empirically analyze policy measures and factors that could help countries mitigate consumption volatility driven by climate change-related events. Consistent with several micro-level findings, financial inclusiveness helps households mitigate consumption volatility amid temperature change. Likewise, government plays a critical role in moderating the negative impact of rising temperature in both output and consumption.