Background Outpatient COVID-19 has been insufficiently characterized. To determine the progression of disease and determinants of hospitalization, we conducted a prospective cohort study. Methods Outpatient adults with positive RT-PCR results for SARS-CoV-2 were recruited by phone between April 21 to July 23, 2020 after receiving outpatient or emergency department testing within a large health network in Maryland, USA. Symptoms were collected by participants on days 0, 3, 7, 14, 21, and 28 and portable pulse oximeter oxygen saturation (SaO2), heart rate, and temperature were collected for 15 consecutive days. Baseline demographics, comorbid conditions, and vital signs were evaluated for risk of subsequent hospitalization using negative binomial, and logistic regression. Results Among 118 SARS-CoV-2 infected outpatients, the median age was 56.0 years (IQR, 50.0 to 63.0) and 50 (42.4%) were male. Among individuals in the first week of illness (N=61), the most common symptoms included weakness/fatigue (65.7%), cough (58.8%), headache (45.6%), chills (38.2%), and anosmia (27.9%). Participants returned to their usual health a median of 20 days (IQR, 13 to 38) from symptom onset, and 66.0% of respondents were at their usual health during the fourth week of illness. Over 28 days, 10.9% presented to the emergency department and 7.6% required hospitalization. The area under the receiving operating characteristic curve for the initial home SaO2 for predicting subsequent hospitalization was 0.86 (CI, 0.73 to 0.99). Conclusions Symptoms often persisted but uncommonly progressed to hospitalization among outpatients with COVID-19. Home SaO2 may be a helpful tool to stratify risk of hospitalization.

Background: The goal of the study was to evaluate a potential role for tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) genetic variability as biomarker in sepsis. In particular, we aimed to determine if single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of TNF-α gene are associated with sepsis in terms of risk, severity and outcome. Methods: We performed a prospective study on 163 adult critically ill septic patients (septic shock 65, sepsis 98, further divided in 40 survivors and 123 deceased) and 232 healthy controls. Genotyping of TNF-α SNPs (-308G/A,-238G/A,-376G/A and +489G/A) was performed for all patients and controls and plasma cytokine levels were measured during the first 24 h after sepsis onset. Results: TNF-α +489G/A A-allele carriage was associated with significantly lower risk of developing sepsis and sepsis shock (AA+AG vs GG: OR = 0.53; p = 0.004; 95% CI = 0.34-0.82 and OR = 0.39; p = 0.003; 95% CI = 0.21-0.74, respectively) but not with sepsis-related outcomes. There was no significant association between any of the other TNF-α promoter SNPs, or their haplotype frequencies and sepsis or septic shock risk. Circulating TNF-α levels were higher in septic shock; they were not correlated with SNP genotype distribution; GG homozygosity for each polymorphism was correlated with higher TNF-α levels in septic shock. Conclusions: TNF-α +489G/A SNP A-allele carriage may confer protection against sepsis and septic shock development but apparently does not influence sepsis-related mortality. Promoter TNF-α SNPs did not affect transcription and were not associated with distinct sepsis, septic shock risk or outcomes.

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