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A general purpose novel reliability analysis method to estimate low probability of failure events for large complicated real nonlinear structures excited by dynamic loadings including seismic loading applied in time domain is presented. In this approach, only tens instead of hundreds or thousands of deterministic evaluations at intelligently selected points are used to extract the required reliability information. It is a significant improvement over other methods currently being developed in other disciplines. Several areas of response surface method are improved and advanced factorial design concepts are presented. The method is elaborated with the help of two informative examples. The proposed method found to be robust, efficient, and accurate. It can be used to estimate reliability of large complicated civil engineering systems.

a b s t r a c tThe paper examines the effects of five major socialization agents-namely parents, peers, traditional media, the Internet, and music industry-on emerging adults' attitudes and behavior toward music piracy in the form of unauthorized downloading. Based upon self-reported behavior, our study shows that these socialization agents exert differential effects on music piracy. Specifically, peers and the Internet exert direct impact on both attitudes and behavior. Parents and music industry, however, only have indirect impact on emerging adults' piracy behavior through shaping their attitudes. The research further shows that the effects of socialization agents differ across consumer segments. A factor mixture modeling technique is first applied to disentangle the behavioral heterogeneity, and more observable factors such as demographic, social, and psychological variables are then utilized to profile members in each segment. From a managerial perspective, this research provides new avenues for managers and policy makers to design targeted prevention programs to curtail music piracy.Published by Elsevier B.V.Decision Support Systems 69 (2015) 70-81 ⁎ Corresponding author.

Reliability of complicated mooring dolphin structures (MDS) is estimated using few deterministic evaluations and an improved response surface method denoted as IRSM-second-order reliability method (SORM). It is a hybrid approach consisting of an IRSM, SORM, and several advanced factorial schemes. For this type of sophisticated analysis, simulation-based algorithm is impractical to implement. The concept is applied to estimate the risk of an existing MDS at the shore of Nile Delta. It is a large diameter steel-pile embedded in the sea bed. The Pile–Soil-System is represented by a nonlinear finite element model (NLFEM). In NLFEM, the steel pile is assumed to behave linearly under the considered working loads, but the soil is considered to behave nonlinearly. Moreover, the contact nonlinearity between the pile and the soil is taken into account. It is demonstrated that the reliability information on MDS can be extracted using tens of deterministic evaluations. It has been found that incorporation of the contact nonlinearity into analysis has no effect on the pile behavior. In the probabilistic analysis, the uncertainties in loading, material properties, and geometric details are taken into account. Both operational and structural limit states are considered. For the MDS considered in this study, it has been observed that the strength limit state (flexural) is more critical than the operational limit state (drift). The most important variables are the mooring loads, the radius and thickness of the pile, and the modulus of elasticity of steel.