Abstract. Linear structural equation models relate the components of a random vector using linear interdependencies and Gaussian noise. Each such model can be naturally associated with a mixed graph whose vertices correspond to the components of the random vector. The graph contains directed edges that represent the linear relationships between components, and bidirected edges that encode unobserved confounding. We study the problem of generic identifiability, that is, whether a generic choice of linear and confounding effects can be uniquely recovered from the joint covariance matrix of the observed random vector. An existing combinatorial criterion for establishing generic identifiability is the half-trek criterion (HTC), which uses the existence of trek systems in the mixed graph to iteratively discover generically invertible linear equation systems in polynomial time. By focusing on edges one at a time, we establish new sufficient and necessary conditions for generic identifiability of edge effects extending those of the HTC. In particular, we show how edge coefficients can be recovered as quotients of subdeterminants of the covariance matrix, which constitutes a determinantal generalization of formulas obtained when using instrumental variables for identification.

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Mathematical modeling is a powerful tool in systems biology; we focus here on improving the reliability of model predictions by reducing the uncertainty in model dynamics through experimental design. Model-based experimental design is a process by which experiments can be systematically chosen to reduce dynamic uncertainty in a given model. We discuss the Maximally Informative Next Experiment (MINE) method for group-wise selection of points in an experimental design and present a convergence result for MINE with nonlinear models. As an application, we illustrate the method on polynomial regression and an ODE model for immune system dynamics. The MINE criterion sequentially determines experiments that can be conducted to best refine model dynamics.

The kinase Syk is intricately involved in early signaling events in B cells and is required for proper response when antigens bind to B cell receptors (BCRs). Experiments using an analog-sensitive version of Syk (Syk-AQL) have better elucidated its role, but have not completely characterized its behavior. We present a computational model for BCR signaling, using dynamical systems, which incorporates both wild-type Syk and Syk-AQL. Following the use of sensitivity analysis to identify significant reaction parameters, we screen for parameter vectors that produced graded responses to BCR stimulation as is observed experimentally. We demonstrate qualitative agreement between the model and dose response data for both mutant and wild-type kinases. Analysis of our model suggests that the level of NF-κB activation, which is reduced in Syk-AQL cells relative to wild-type, is more sensitive to small reductions in kinase activity than Erkp activation, which is essentially unchanged. Since this profile of high Erkp and reduced NF-κB is consistent with anergy, this implies that anergy is particularly sensitive to small changes in catalytic activity. Also, under a range of forward and reverse ligand binding rates, our model of Erkp and NF-κB activation displays a dependence on a power law affinity: the ratio of the forward rate to a non-unit power of the reverse rate. This dependence implies that B cells may respond to certain details of binding and unbinding rates for ligands rather than simple affinity alone.

A time series is an extremely abundant data type arising in many areas of scientific research, including the biological sciences. Any method that compares time series data relies on a pairwise distance between trajectories, and the choice of distance measure determines the accuracy and speed of the time series comparison. This paper introduces an optimal transport type distance for comparing time series trajectories that are allowed to lie in spaces of different dimensions and/or with differing numbers of points possibly unequally spaced along each trajectory. The construction is based on a modified Gromov–Wasserstein distance optimization program, reducing the problem to a Wasserstein distance on the real line. The resulting program has a closed-form solution and can be computed quickly due to the scalability of the one-dimensional Wasserstein distance. We discuss theoretical properties of this distance measure, and empirically demonstrate the performance of the proposed distance on several datasets with a range of characteristics commonly found in biologically relevant data. We also use our proposed distance to demonstrate that averaging oscillatory time series trajectories using the recently proposed Fused Gromov–Wasserstein barycenter retains more characteristics in the averaged trajectory when compared to traditional averaging, which demonstrates the applicability of Fused Gromov–Wasserstein barycenters for biological time series. Fast and user friendly software for computing the proposed distance and related applications is provided. The proposed distance allows fast and meaningful comparison of biological time series and can be efficiently used in a wide range of applications.