Population growth is highly sensitive to changes in reproductive rates for many avian species. Understanding how reproductive rates are related to environmental conditions can give managers insight into factors contributing to population change. Harvest trends of eastern wild turkey in northeastern South Dakota suggest a decline in abundance. We investigated factors influencing reproductive success of this important game bird to identify potential factors contributing to the decline. We monitored nesting rate, nest survival, renesting rate, clutch size, hatchability, and poult survival of 116 eastern wild turkey hens using VHF radio transmitters during the springs and summers of 2017 and 2018. Heavier hens were more likely to attempt to nest than lighter hens, and adult hens were more likely to renest than yearling hens. Nest survival probability was lowest in agricultural fields relative to all other cover types and positively related to horizontal visual obstruction and distance to the nearest road. Daily nest survival probability demonstrated an interaction between temperature and precipitation, such that nest survival probability was lower on warm, wet days, but lowest on dry days. Egg predation was the leading cause of nest failure, followed by haying of the nest bowl and death of the incubating hen. Poults reared by adult hens had a greater probability of survival than poults reared by yearling hens. Our estimate of survival probability of poults raised by yearling hens was low relative to other studies, which may be contributing to the apparent regional population decline. However, there is little managers can do to influence poult survival in yearling hens. Alternatively, we found nest survival probability was lowest for nests initiated in agricultural fields. Wildlife‐friendly harvesting practices such as delayed haying or installation of flushing bars could help increase productivity of eastern wild turkey in northeastern South Dakota.

Population growth can be sensitive to changes in survival rates for many avian species. Understanding sources of mortality, and how to mitigate negative effects on survival, can give managers insight into factors contributing to population change. Harvest trends of eastern wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) in northeastern South Dakota suggest a decline in abundance. We investigated factors influencing survival of wild turkeys to identify potential factors contributing to the decline. We monitored 122 female wild turkeys using VHF radio transmitters from February 2017 to April 2019. Annual survival was 0.52 (95% CI = 0.33-0.64) for juvenile and 0.49 (95% CI = 0.23-0.63) for adult females, respectively. Daily survival probability was significantly lower during the spring (log-odds ratio [LOR] = −0.9; 95% CI = −1.5-−0.2) and while a juvenile female was incubating (LOR = −0.67; 95% CI = −1.23-−0.09) but not while an adult female was incubating (LOR = −0.35; 95% CI = −0.92-0.24).Mammalian predation was the leading cause of mortality, and female wild turkeys were most vulnerable to predation during the spring while engaging in nesting and rearing of young broods. Wild turkeys were at risk for additional sources of mortality while incubating nests that were not contributors to mortality during other periods of the year, as deaths caused by haying equipment-the second greatest cause of mortalityonly occurred while a female was incubating. Reducing female mortality due to haying, by delaying cutting, installing flushing

The population of eastern wild turkeys in northeastern South Dakota appeared to be expanding soon after reintroduction in the 1990s, however, recent harvest trends suggest declining abundance in the region. Spring turkey hunting expenditures are projected to be around $6.5 million in South Dakota, with about $3 million of those expenditures occurring within the northeastern prairie region. However, the number of birds harvested during the spring prairie firearm season has been declining since 2010. Due to concerns about a declining population, the autumn hunting season was closed in 2014. The cause of the apparent decline is unclear. Updated demographic information is needed to assess the status of the population of wild turkeys in northeastern South Dakota and to determine the most effective management strategies for increasing abundance across the region. I captured and radio-marked 80 eastern wild turkey hens (43 adult and 37 yearling) in Grant County, South Dakota during the winter of 2017, and I radio-marked an additional 41 yearling hens during the winter of 2018. I monitored radio-marked hens for survival and productivity from February 2017 to April 2019. I used Bayesian methods to model hen survival, nesting rate, nest survival, re-nesting rate, clutch size, hatchability, and poult survival as a function of covariates. I used estimates of productivity to calculate the fecundity rate for both age-classes of wild turkeys. I incorporated estimates of hen survival and fecundity into a matrix projection model, and I performed perturbation analyses and conducted a life-stage simulation analysis (LSA) to assess the impact of each demographic parameter on population growth. Annual survival for both age-classes of wild turkey hens was about 62.5%. The probability a hen would initiate a nest was 77.1% and the probability a nest would survive the 28-day incubation period was 49.3%. The probability a hen would initiate a second nest after a failed first nest attempt was 59.6% for adult hens and 25.1% for yearling hens. The mean clutch size for all nests was 10 eggs and the probability an egg would hatch was 87.1%. The probability a poult survived the 28-day post-hatch interval was 35.5% for poults reared by adult hens and 19.7% for poults reared by yearling hens. The population of eastern wild turkeys in northeastern South Dakota is currently stable-to-growing (λ = 1.107), and population growth is most greatly affected by changes in hen survival. Management activities should focus on improving hen survival by reducing the top two sources of mortality-mammalian predation and haying by agricultural equipment. Enhancing the quality of herbaceous and early successional habitats could reduce hen risk of mortality while conducting nesting and brood-rearing activities. Additionally, increased availability of suitable nesting habitat on the landscape could mean fewer hens will resort to nesting in alfalfa hayfields, where nest failure is certain and hens are at risk of mortality due to haying. Improving eastern wild turkey h...