4 Non-technical summary 5
This paper examines how personal bankruptcy and bankruptcy exemptions affect the supply and demand for credit. While generous state-level bankruptcy exemptions are probably viewed by most policymakers as benefiting less-well-off borrowers, our results using data from the 1983 Survey of Consumer Finances suggest they increase the amount of credit held by high-asset households and reduce the availability and amount of credit to low-asset households, conditioning on observable characteristics. We also find evidence that interest rates on automobile loans for lowasset households are higher in high exemption states. Thus, bankruptcy exemptions redistribute credit toward borrowers with high assets.
Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may E U R O P E A N C E N T R A L B A N K WO R K I N G PA P E R S E R I E E U R O P E A N C E N T R A L B A N K WO R K I N G PA P E R S E R I E S AbstractWe analyse the ability of the distance-to-default and bond spreads to signal bank fragility. We show that both indicators are complete and unbiased and that spreads are non-linear in the probability of bank default. We empirically test these properties in a sample of EU banks. We find leading properties for both indicators. The distance-to-default exhibits lead times of 6 to 18 months. Spreads have signal value close to default only, in line with the theory. We also find that implicit safety nets weaken the predictive power of spreads. Further, the results suggest complementarity between both indicators, reducing type I errors. We also examine the interaction of the indicators with other bank information.JEL codes: G21, G12 Non-technical summaryThis paper examines whether forward-looking indicators of bank soundness could be constructed using financial market data on the securities issued by banks. There is considerable interest on the issue, since market data are available on a high frequency, compared with profit and loss accounts and balance sheets. So far, all empirical evidence has focused on banks' subordinated bond spreads. In this paper, we also examine the properties of an equity market-based indicator, the distance-to-default, and compare its properties to those of the spread. The main contributions of the paper are (i) a theoretical examination of the predictive properties of the two indicators, (ii) the estimation of a proportional hazard model to test these properties, making efficient use of the information contained in the prevalence of an indicator over time, and (iii) an explicit test for the role of the public safety net in the information content of market indicators.Using a standard option pricing framework, we show that the equity-based distance-todefault and the subordinated bond spread have two highly desirable properties to be leading indicators of bank fragility. They are complete in the sense that they reflect the three major determinants of default risk (earnings expectations, leverage and asset risk) and unbiased in the sense that they reflect these risks correctly. However, the theory also suggests that the two indictors exhibit important differences in their predictive ability. In particular, we show that the response of the spreads to...
This paper empirically investigates the effect of government bail-out policies on banks outside the safety net. We construct a measure of bail-out perceptions by using rating information. From there, we construct the market shares of insured competitor banks for any given bank, and analyze the impact of this variable on banks' risk-taking behavior, using a large sample of banks from OECD countries. Our results suggest that government guarantees strongly increase the risk-taking of competitor banks. In contrast, there is no evidence that public guarantees increase the protected banks' risk-taking, except for banks that have outright public ownership. These results have important implications for the effects of the recent wave of bank bail-outs on banks' risk-taking behavior.JEL: G21, G28, L53.
We study the impact of higher capital requirements on banks' balance sheets and its transmission to the real economy. The 2011 EBA capital exercise is an almost ideal quasi-natural experiment to identify this impact with a difference-in-differences matching estimator. We find that treated banks increase their capital ratios by reducing their risk-weighted assets and -consistent with debt overhangnot by raising their levels of equity. Banks reduce lending to corporate and retail customers, resulting in lower asset-, investment-and sales growth for firms obtaining a larger share of their bank credit from the treated banks.
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