No abstract

With the improvement of living standards, more and more residents in China choose short leisure travel at weekends. This study aims to model the leisure travel duration to investigate the relationship between travel time and residents’ factors, which can provide guidance for the development of urban parks and improve the structure of transportation modes to promote low-carbon travel modes. The accelerated hazard model is applied to establish the model equation between travel time and various factors, to obtain the differences between weekend travel time in scenic spots and personal characteristics such as residents’ playing time and travel mode choice. First, an analysis of variance was performed on the valid data which have been collected. Then, the Kaplan–Meier test proved that weekend activity types tend to follow different survival functions. Finally, this study established the lifespan regression equation of the travel time, and we found that the best fit is the Log-normal distribution. This study shows clearly that accelerated hazard models based on fixed parameters are better at evaluating the attractiveness of urban parks, and they can also get feedback travel characteristics of primary residents. So, we can build a lifespan analysis-based model for the travel time of urban residents, to help plan the urban parks. The result of this study can be used for predicting the flow of different travel modes at urban parks in cities, which can be helpful for regional traffic organization such as regional traffic flow guidance and signal timing.