The objective of this study was to estimate the relative risk of listeriosis-associated deaths attributable to Listeria monocytogenes contamination in ham and turkey formulated without and with growth inhibitors (GIs). Two contamination scenarios were investigated: (i) prepackaged deli meats with contamination originating solely from manufacture at a frequency of 0.4% (based on reported data) and (ii) retail-sliced deli meats with contamination originating solely from retail at a frequency of 2.3% (based on reported data). Using a manufacture-to-consumption risk assessment with product-specific growth kinetic parameters (i.e., lag phase and exponential growth rate), reformulation with GIs was estimated to reduce human listeriosis deaths linked to ham and turkey by 2.8- and 9-fold, respectively, when contamination originated at manufacture and by 1.9- and 2.8-fold, respectively, for products contaminated at retail. Contamination originating at retail was estimated to account for 76 and 63% of listeriosis deaths caused by ham and turkey, respectively, when all products were formulated without GIs and for 83 and 84% of listeriosis deaths caused by ham and turkey, respectively, when all products were formulated with GIs. Sensitivity analyses indicated that storage temperature was the most important factor affecting the estimation of per annum relative risk. Scenario analyses suggested that reducing storage temperature in home refrigerators to consistently below 7 degrees C would greatly reduce the risk of human listeriosis deaths, whereas reducing storage time appeared to be less effective. Overall, our data indicate a critical need for further development and implementation of effective control strategies to reduce L. monocytogenes contamination at the retail level.

19 20 21 22 23 produce farms. Managing water-associated risks does not lend itself to one-size-fits-all 24 approaches due to the heterogeneous nature of freshwater environments, and because 25 environmental conditions affect the likelihood of pathogen contamination and the relationship 26 between indicator organism levels (e.g., E. coli) and pathogen presence. To improve our ability 27 to develop location-specific risk management practices, a study was conducted in two produce-28 growing regions to (i) characterize the relationship between E. coli levels and pathogen presence 29 in agricultural water, and (ii) identify environmental factors associated with pathogen detection. 30Three AZ and six NY waterways were sampled longitudinally using 10-L grab samples (GS) and 31 24-h Moore swabs (MS). Regression showed that the likelihood of Salmonella detection (Odds 32 Ratio [OR]=2.18), and eaeA-stx codetection (OR=6.49) was significantly greater for MS 33 compared to GS, while the likelihood of detecting L. monocytogenes was not. Regression also 34 showed that eaeA-stx codetection in AZ (OR=50.2) and NY (OR=18.4), and Salmonella 35 detection in AZ (OR=4.4) were significantly associated with E. coli levels, while Salmonella 36 detection in NY was not. Random forest analysis indicated that interactions between 37 environmental factors (e.g., rainfall, temperature, turbidity) (i) were associated with likelihood of 38 pathogen detection and (ii) mediated the relationship between E. coli levels and likelihood of 39 pathogen detection. Our findings suggest that (i) environmental heterogeneity, including 40 interactions between factors, affects microbial water quality, and (ii) E. coli levels alone may not 41 be a suitable indicator of the food safety risks. Instead, targeted methods that utilize 42 environmental and microbial data (e.g., models that use turbidity and E. coli levels to predict 43 when there is a high or low risk of surface water being contaminated by pathogens) are needed to 44 assess and mitigate the food safety risks associated with preharvest water use. By identifying 45 environmental factors associated with an increased likelihood of detecting pathogens in 46 agricultural water, this study provides information that (i) can be used to assess when pathogen 47 contamination of agricultural water is likely to occur, and (ii) facilitate development of targeted 48 interventions for individual water sources, providing an alternative to existing one-size-fits-all 49 approaches. 50 51 52 3 3Preharvest surface water use for produce production (e.g., irrigation, fertigation, pesticide 53 application, dust abatement) has repeatedly been identified as a factor associated with an 54

Frozen foods do not support the growth of Listeria monocytogenes (LM) and should be handled appropriately for safety. However, consumer trends regarding preparation of some frozen foods may contribute to the risk of foodborne listeriosis, specifically when cooking instructions are not followed and frozen products are instead added directly to smoothies or salads. A quantitative microbial risk assessment model FFLLoRA (Frozen Food Listeria Lot Risk Assessment) was developed to assess the lot-level listeriosis risk due to LM contamination in frozen vegetables consumed as a ready-to-eat food. The model was designed to estimate listeriosis risk per serving and the number of illnesses per production lot of frozen vegetables contaminated with LM, considering individual facility factors such as lot size, prevalence of LM contamination, and consumer handling prior to consumption. A production lot of 1 million packages with 10 servings each was assumed. When at least half of the servings were cooked prior to consumption, the median risk of invasive listeriosis per serving in both the general and susceptible population was <1.0 × 10−16 with the median (5th, 95th percentiles) predicted number of illnesses per lot as 0 (0, 0) and 0 (0, 1) under the exponential and Weibull-gamma dose-response functions, respectively. In scenarios in which all servings are consumed as ready-to-eat, the median predicted risk per serving was 1.8 × 10−13 and 7.8 × 10−12 in the general and susceptible populations, respectively. The median (5th, 95th percentile) number of illnesses was 0 (0, 0) and 0 (0, 6) for the exponential and Weibull-Gamma models, respectively. Classification tree analysis highlighted initial concentration of LM in the lot, temperature at which the product is thawed, and whether a serving is cooked as main predictors for illness from a lot. Overall, the FFLLoRA provides frozen food manufacturers with a tool to assess LM contamination and consumer behavior when managing rare and/or minimal contamination events in frozen foods. HIGHLIGHTS

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Antimicrobial use in animal agriculture is often perceived to play a role in the emerging threat of antimicrobial resistance. Increased consumer awareness of this issue places pressure on animal husbandry to adopt policies to reduce or eliminate antimicrobial use. We use a scoping review methodology to assess research on consumer perceptions of antimicrobial drugs in meat products in the United States, Canada, or the European Union. Evaluating peer-reviewed and grey literature, we included studies for assessment if they met these topical and geographic requirements, involved primary data collection, and were originally published in English. Our screening process identified 124 relevant studies. Three reviewers jointly developed a data charting form and independently charted the contents of the studies. Of the 105 studies that measured consumer concern, 77.1% found that consumers were concerned about antimicrobial use in meat production. A minority of studies (29.8% of all studies) queried why consumers hold these views. These studies found human health and animal welfare were the main reasons for concern. Antimicrobial resistance rarely registered as an explicit reason for concern. A smaller group of studies (23.3%) measured the personal characteristics of consumers that expressed concern about antimicrobials. Among these studies, the most common and consistent features of these consumers were gender, age, income, and education. Regarding the methodology used, studies tended to be dominated by either willingness-to-pay studies or Likert scale questionnaires (73.64% of all studies). We recommend consideration of qualitative research into consumer views on this topic, which may provide new perspectives that explain consumer decision-making and mentality that are lacking in the literature. In addition, more research into the difference between what consumers claim is of concern and their ultimate purchasing decisions would be especially valuable.