No abstract
We present a new theory of hypothesis testing. The main concept is the s-value, a notion of evidence which, unlike p-values, allows for effortlessly combining evidence from several tests, even in the common scenario where the decision to perform a new test depends on the previous test outcome: safe tests based on s-values generally preserve Type-I error guarantees under such 'optional continuation'. s-values exist for completely general testing problems with composite null and alternatives. Their prime interpretation is in terms of gambling or investing, each s-value corresponding to a particular investment. Surprisingly, optimal "GROW" s-values, which lead to fastest capital growth, are fully characterized by the joint information projection (JIPr) between the set of all Bayes marginal distributions on H 0 and H 1 . Thus, optimal s-values also have an interpretation as Bayes factors, with priors given by the JIPr. We illustrate the theory using two classical testing scenarios: the one-sample t-test and the 2 × 2-contingency table. In the t-test setting, GROW s-values correspond to adopting the right Haar prior on the variance, like in Jeffreys' Bayesian t-test. However, unlike Jeffreys', the default safe t-test puts a discrete 2-point prior on the effect size, leading to better behaviour in terms of statistical power. Sharing Fisherian, Neymanian and Jeffreys-Bayesian interpretations, s-values and safe tests may provide a methodology acceptable to adherents of all three schools.
It is often claimed that Bayesian methods, in particular Bayes factor methods for hypothesis testing, can deal with optional stopping. We first give an overview, using elementary probability theory, of three different mathematical meanings that various authors give to this claim: (1) stopping rule independence, (2) posterior calibration and (3) (semi-) frequentist robustness to optional stopping. We then prove theorems to the effect that these claims do indeed hold in a general measure-theoretic setting. For claims of type ( 2) and ( 3), such results are new. By allowing for non-integrable measures based on improper priors, we obtain particularly strong results for the practically important case of models with nuisance parameters satisfying a group invariance (such as location or scale). We also discuss the practical relevance of ( 1)-( 3), and conclude that whether Bayes factor methods actually perform well under optional stopping crucially depends on details of models, priors and the goal of the analysis.
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