It is derived a balance-of-payments equilibrium growth rate analogous to Thirlwall´s Law from a Pasinettian multi-sector macrodynamic framework. The resulting formula, which we call Multi-Sectoral Thirlwall´s Law, asserts that the growth rate of per capita income is directly proportional to the growth rate of exports, such a proportionality being inversely (directly) related to sectoral income elasticities of imports (exports). These elasticities are weighted by the share of each sector in aggregate imports and exports, respectively. Several relevant theoretical, empirical and policy implications can be drawn from such a structural dynamics approach to balance-of-payments-constrained growth.

The Structural Economic Dynamic approach is distinguished by its simultaneous approach to demand and supply sides of economic growth. However, the idea that growth itself can transform an economy, which became known in the literature as cumulative causation, cannot be properly studied by this framework because technological progress is treated in the same manner as in the traditional Neoclassical model, that is, it is exogenous. Besides, it is the only source of economy growth with no role played by demand in the pace of economic growth but only in the sectoral composition of the economy. Here we introduce Verdoon's Law in the Pasinetti's model of structural change thus making it able to study cumulative causation and thus rendering structural changes endogenous in this model. JEL Classification: O19, F12

Abstract. The present paper describes an approach for detecting possible dropout students in technical distance learning courses. The proposed method uses only the count of students interactions inside a Learning Management System (LMS), along with other attributes derived from the counts. Such strategy allows better generalization in different platforms and LMS, as it does not rely on the differences among the interaction types, or use other darta sources besides LMS logs. Predictive models were trained and tested with data from 4 technical distance learning courses in two different scenarios: 1) train and test with data from one course, and 2) train with data combined from 3 courses and test with data of the remaining course. Results point out it is possible to predict dropout students in the first weeks of the courses with average accuracy rates of 75% in most of scenarios, achieving 95% in the best case scenarios.Resumo. O presente trabalho apresenta uma abordagem para a detecção de alunos em risco de evasão em cursos técnicos a distância que utiliza apenas a contagem de interações dos estudantes dentro do AVA, além de atributos derivados dessas contagens. A premissa inicialé de que essa estratégia permite uma maior generalização em diferentes plataformas e AVA, uma vez que não utiliza diferenciações entre os tipos de interações, nem informações de outra ordem encontradas fora do AVA (dados demográficos, exames, questionários, etc). Os modelos de predição foram testados e treinados com dados de 4 diferentes cursos técnicos EAD em dois cenários diferentes: 1) treino e teste com dados de um mesmo curso, e 2) treino com dados de 3 cursos e teste com dados do curso restante. Os resultados apontam a possibilidade de predição de estudantes em risco de evasão já nas primeiras semanas dos cursos com taxas de desempenho próximas a 75% na maioria dos cenários, e chegando a 95% nos melhores casos.

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In this paper it is shown that once-for-all variations in the level of the exchange rate may play an important role in the sectoral composition of the economy and this fact has important implications in terms of a disaggregated version of the Thirlwall's law even if the argument of the quantitative unimportance of relative price movements holds. The growth rate of a country is then shown to be affected by once-for-all movements in the level of nominal exchange rates and the concept of a natural exchange rate is introduced.