In the current context of ongoing global change, the understanding of how the niches of invasive species may change between different geographical areas or time periods is extremely important for the early detection and control of future invasions. We evaluated the effect of climate and non-climate variables and the sensitivity to various spatial resolutions (i.e. 1 and 20 km) on niche changes during the invasion of Taraxacum officinale and Ulex europaeus in South America. We estimated niche changes using a combination of principal components analyses (PCA) and reciprocal Ecological Niche Modelling (rENM). We further investigated future invasion dynamics under a severe warming scenario for 2050 to unravel the role of niche shifts in the future potential distribution of the species. We observed a clear niche expansion for both species in South America towards higher temperature, precipitation and radiation relative to their native ranges. In contrast, the set of environmental conditions only occupied in the native ranges (i.e. niche unfilling) were less relevant. The magnitude of the niche shifts did not depend on the resolution of the variables. Models calibrated with occurrences from native range predicted large suitable areas in South America (outside of the Andes range) where T. officinale and U. europaeus are currently absent. Additionally, both species could increase their potential distributions by 2050, mostly in the southern part of the continent. In addition, the niche unfilling suggests high potential to invade additional regions in the future, which is extremely relevant considering the current impact of these species in the Southern Hemisphere. These findings confirm that invasive species can occupy new niches that are not predictable from knowledge based only on climate variables or information from the native range.
Avian electrocution on power lines is a major conservation issue on a global scale. Electrocution risk models have recently been proposed as an effective alternative to prioritising high‐risk pole retrofitting activities at a large scale. However, existing models ignore the specific features of the power poles (hereafter, poles) supporting the power distribution lines and make the tenuous assumption that pole density and power line length are key factors to assessing the electrocution risk at a large scale. This assumption may be violated in areas with high variations in pole configuration.
In this study, we used data on raptors electrocuted on poles to develop a predictive model of raptor electrocution risk throughout an extensive geographical area in north‐western Spain, using boosted regression trees. With the best‐fitting model, we predicted the hazard of a set of 188,741 poles and validated the model predictions with new data collected from the study area.
Our model highlights the relevance of combining both habitat and technical features to identify the most dangerous poles for raptors on a large geographical scale. A 9.86% of the total poles evaluated were characterised as high risk for raptors. The model showed good performance in external validation. The new electrocution events were registered at poles with high‐risk values.
Synthesis and applications. In this study, we improved the accuracy of the predictive models of raptor electrocution risk for large geographical areas. By incorporating the technical characteristics of the power poles into the models, we achieved a high level of prediction at the power pole level, which is the ultimate correction unit. This will allow electric companies and wildlife managers to specify retrofitting activities of high‐risk power poles for raptors in large geographical areas, thus maximising the effect of investment in the correction of dangerous power poles and conservation of the raptor populations.
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