The lack of empirical data regarding earthquake damage or losses has propelled the development of dozens of analytical methodologies for the derivation of fragility and vulnerability functions. Each method will naturally have its strengths and weaknesses, which will consequently affect the associated risk estimates. With the purpose of sharing knowledge on vulnerability modeling, identifying shortcomings in the existing methods, and recommending improvements to the current practice, a group of vulnerability experts met in Pavia (Italy) in April 2017. Critical topics related to the selection of ground motion records, modeling of complex real structures through simplified approaches, propagation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, and validation of vulnerability results were discussed, and suggestions were proposed to improve the reliability and accuracy in vulnerability modeling.
Nonlinear static procedures constitute an important tool in design office application of performance-based earthquake engineering concepts, and for this reason, they have been extensively developed and promoted in the last decade or so. However, these efforts focused predominantly on the assessment of buildings, rather than bridges, and hence there is currently a need to verify the validity in the application of such pushover-based methods for the assessment of bridges or viaducts. In this work, therefore, by considering a wide set of bridge configurations subjected to equally varying seismic input intensity levels, four commonly employed nonlinear static procedures (CSM, N2, MPA, ACSM) are scrutinized and compared, with a view to establish their adequacy for the seismic assessment of existing continuous span bridges. Results seem to indicate that all methods are able to predict displacement response with good accuracy, while force estimation, on the other hand, is reasonably attained only by those approaches where higher modes effects are explicitly accounted for.
The accurate estimation of fragility functions requires the proper selection of ground motion records at different intensity levels. However, most of the available fragility assessments of concrete dams use the same records at all intensity levels and often selects them with an inadequate target spectrum. In order to improve the fragility assessment of such structures, this paper proposes the use of records selected with the Conditional Spectrum (CS) method within a multiple stripes analysis. The approach is applied to a dam in Eastern Canada, and a comparison with the methodology used by other studies is done. It is shown that the approach proposed herein allows for the reduction of the seismic response and fragility of the dam. Moreover, the uncertainty related to material properties becomes less significant when using the CS method, and the fragility curves could be reasonably estimated by considering the ground motions as the only source of uncertainty.
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