This study assesses the macroeconomic impacts of increasing competition in the nontradable goods and labour markets in Portugal. We lean on evidence that the maintenance of low competition in these markets may have contributed to the recent poor performance of the Portuguese economy. The analysis is performed using PESSOA, a dynamic general equilibrium model for a small-open economy integrated in a monetary union, featuring Blanchard-Yaari households, a multi-sectoral production structure and a number of nominal and real rigidities.We conclude that measures aimed at increasing competition in the Portuguese non-tradable goods and labour markets could induce important international competitiveness gains and be valuable instruments in promoting necessary adjustments within the monetary union framework. However, in the short run, real interest rates are likely to increase temporarily, driving consumption and output temporarily downwards.

Economic and social impacts of aging trends will be of the utmost importance in the near future. We embed a stylized pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension system into a DSGE model with overlapping generations to assess the macroeconomic effects of aging in a small Euro Area economy. The simulations suggest large negative impacts on GDP and private consumption. In addition, external imbalances may widen significantly under the PAYG system. All results are conditional on the policy options addressing debt sustainability–the impacts tend to be very large if the government finances the aging with higher social security premia instead of lower replacement ratios. Sensitivity analysis reveals that GDP and private consumption impacts are less robust than those on external imbalances. Results also imply that supranational policy coordination may be crucial if the objective is to preserve economic and financial stability in the Euro Area.

U Un np pl le ea as sa an nt t d de eb bt t d dy yn na am mi ic cs s: : C Ca an n f fi is sc ca al l c co on ns so ol li id da at ti io on ns s r ra ai is se e d de eb bt t r ra at ti io os s? ?

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