This article is concerned with counting and identifying those customers who are still active. The issue is important in at least three settings: monitoring the size and growth rate of a firm's ongoing customer base, evaluating a new product's success based on the pattern of trial and repeat purchases, and targeting a subgroup of customers for advertising and promotions. We develop a model based on the number and timing of the customers' previous transactions. This approach allows computation of the probability that any particular customer is still active. Several numerical examples are used to illustrate applications of the model.marketing, consumer behavior, poisson process, probability mixture models, new product introductions, market segmentation, brokerage firms

Please scroll down for article-it is on subsequent pages With 12,500 members from nearly 90 countries, INFORMS is the largest international association of operations research (O.R.) and analytics professionals and students. INFORMS provides unique networking and learning opportunities for individual professionals, and organizations of all types and sizes, to better understand and use O.R. and analytics tools and methods to transform strategic visions and achieve better outcomes. For more information on INFORMS, its publications, membership, or meetings visit http://www.informs.org

No abstract

In the United States, applied behavior analysis (ABA) is broadly recognized as a medically necessary treatment for individuals diagnosed with autism and related disorders (Association of Professional Behavior Analysts, 2020, Guidelines for practicing applied behavior analysis during COVID-19 pandemic, Retrieved from https://cdn.ymaws.com/www.apbahome.net/resource/ collection/1FDDBDD2-5CAF-4B2A-AB3F-DAE5E72111BF/APBA_Guidelines_-_Practicing_During_COVID-19_ Pandemic_040920.pdf). We argue that this designation should not be called into question in light of a particular disaster and that it is critical to consider that an interruption of services can have long-lasting effects on the treatment of the individual (practitioners are ethically obligated to uphold the continuity of services while doing no harm). This dilemma might be ameliorated by a decision model that considers the prioritization of immediate needs, the vulnerability of clients, and the competency of service providers. Just as the medical field prioritizes immediate needs during crisis situations and defers routine appointments (e.g., physicals, checkups), the ABA field can make similar evidence-based decisions. The purpose of the current article is to provide a decision model for ABA practitioners who find themselves questioning the need for essential service delivery during the current COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of this model goes beyond the needs of this crisis and can be applied to any emergency situation where services are at risk of interruption.