In historical biogeography, model-based inference methods for reconstructing the evolution of geographic ranges on phylogenetic trees are poorly developed relative to the diversity of analogous methods available for inferring character evolution. We attempt to rectify this deficiency by constructing a dispersal-extinction-cladogenesis (DEC) model for geographic range evolution that specifies instantaneous transition rates between discrete states (ranges) along phylogenetic branches and apply it to estimating likelihoods of ancestral states (range inheritance scenarios) at cladogenesis events. Unlike an earlier version of this approach, the present model allows for an analytical solution to probabilities of range transitions as a function of time, enabling free parameters in the model, rates of dispersal, and local extinction to be estimated by maximum likelihood. Simulation results indicate that accurate parameter estimates may be difficult to obtain in practice but also show that ancestral range inheritance scenarios nevertheless can be correctly recovered with high success if rates of range evolution are low relative to the rate of cladogenesis. We apply the DEC model to a previously published, exemplary case study of island biogeography involving Hawaiian endemic angiosperms in Psychotria (Rubiaceae), showing how the DEC model can be iteratively refined from inspecting inferences of range evolution and also how geological constraints involving times of island origin may be imposed on the likelihood function. The DEC model is sufficiently similar to character models that it might serve as a gateway through which many existing comparative methods for characters could be imported into the realm of historical biogeography; moreover, it might also inspire the conceptual expansion of character models toward inclusion of evolutionary change as directly coincident, either as cause or consequence, with cladogenesis events. The DEC model is thus an incremental advance that highlights considerable potential in the nascent field of model-based historical biogeographic inference.

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Reconstructing the phylogenetic relationships that unite all lineages (the tree of life) is a grand challenge. The paucity of homologous character data across disparately related lineages currently renders direct phylogenetic inference untenable. To reconstruct a comprehensive tree of life, we therefore synthesized published phylogenies, together with taxonomic classifications for taxa never incorporated into a phylogeny. We present a draft tree containing 2.3 million tipsthe Open Tree of Life. Realization of this tree required the assembly of two additional community resources: (i) a comprehensive global reference taxonomy and (ii) a database of published phylogenetic trees mapped to this taxonomy. Our open source framework facilitates community comment and contribution, enabling the tree to be continuously updated when new phylogenetic and taxonomic data become digitally available. Although data coverage and phylogenetic conflict across the Open Tree of Life illuminate gaps in both the underlying data available for phylogenetic reconstruction and the publication of trees as digital objects, the tree provides a compelling starting point for community contribution. This comprehensive tree will fuel fundamental research on the nature of biological diversity, ultimately providing up-to-date phylogenies for downstream applications in comparative biology, ecology, conservation biology, climate change, agriculture, and genomics.phylogeny | taxonomy | tree of life | biodiversity | synthesis T he realization that all organisms on Earth are related by common descent (1) was one of the most profound insights in scientific history. The goal of reconstructing the tree of life is one of the most daunting challenges in biology. The scope of the problem is immense: there are ∼1.8 million named species, and most species have yet to be described (2-4). Despite decades of effort and thousands of phylogenetic studies on diverse clades, we lack a comprehensive tree of life, or even a summary of our current knowledge. One reason for this shortcoming is lack of data. GenBank contains DNA sequences for ∼411,000 species, only 22% of estimated named species. Although some gene regions (e.g., rbcL, 16S, COI) have been widely sequenced across some lineages, they are insufficient for resolving relationships across the entire tree (5). Most recognized species have never been included in a phylogenetic analysis because no appropriate molecular or morphological data have been collected.There is extensive publication of new phylogenies, data, and inference methods, but little attention to synthesis. We therefore focus on constructing, to our knowledge, the first comprehensive tree of life through the integration of published phylogenies with taxonomic information. Phylogenies by systematists with expertise in particular taxa likely represent the best estimates of relationships for individual clades. By focusing on trees instead of raw data, we avoid issues of dataset assembly (6). However, most published phylogenies are available only as jour...

At a time when historical biogeography appears to be again expanding its scope after a period of focusing primarily on discerning area relationships using cladograms, new inference methods are needed to bring more kinds of data to bear on questions about the geographic history of lineages. Here we describe a likelihood framework for inferring the evolution of geographic range on phylogenies that models lineage dispersal and local extinction in a set of discrete areas as stochastic events in continuous time. Unlike existing methods for estimating ancestral areas, such as dispersal-vicariance analysis, this approach incorporates information on the timing of both lineage divergences and the availability of connections between areas (dispersal routes). Monte Carlo methods are used to estimate branch-specific transition probabilities for geographic ranges, enabling the likelihood of the data (observed species distributions) to be evaluated for a given phylogeny and parameterized paleogeographic model. We demonstrate how the method can be used to address two biogeographic questions: What were the ancestral geographic ranges on a phylogenetic tree? How were those ancestral ranges affected by speciation and inherited by the daughter lineages at cladogenesis events? For illustration we use hypothetical examples and an analysis of a Northern Hemisphere plant clade (Cercis), comparing and contrasting inferences to those obtained from dispersal-vicariance analysis. Although the particular model we implement is somewhat simplistic, the framework itself is flexible and could readily be modified to incorporate additional sources of information and also be extended to address other aspects of historical biogeography.

Phylogenetic relationships among recently diverged species are often difficult to resolve due to insufficient phylogenetic signal in available markers and/or conflict among gene trees. Here we explore the use of reduced-representation genome sequencing, specifically in the form of restriction-site associated DNA (RAD), for phylogenetic inference and the detection of ancestral hybridization in non-model organisms. As a case study, we investigate Pedicularis section Cyathophora, a systematically recalcitrant clade of flowering plants in the broomrape family (Orobanchaceae). Two methods of phylogenetic inference, maximum likelihood and Bayesian concordance, were applied to data sets that included as many as 40,000 RAD loci. Both methods yielded similar topologies that included two major clades: a “rex-thamnophila” clade, composed of two species and several subspecies with relatively low floral diversity, and geographically widespread distributions at lower elevations, and a “superba” clade, composed of three species characterized by relatively high floral diversity and isolated geographic distributions at higher elevations. Levels of molecular divergence between subspecies in the rex-thamnophila clade are similar to those between species in the superba clade. Using Patterson’s D-statistic test, including a novel extension of the method that enables finer-grained resolution of introgression among multiple candidate taxa by removing the effect of their shared ancestry, we detect significant introgression among nearly all taxa in the rex-thamnophila clade, but not between clades or among taxa within the superba clade. These results suggest an important role for geographic isolation in the emergence of species barriers, by facilitating local adaptation and differentiation in the absence of homogenizing gene flow. [Concordance factors; genotyping-by-sequencing; hybridization; partitioned D-statistic test; Pedicularis; restriction-site associated DNA.]