Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the exposure of a species to a stressor (climate change and decadal variability) and the sensitivity of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability. Quantitative data are used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion are used when quantitative data is lacking. Here we conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on 82 fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast U.S. Shelf including exploited, forage, and protected species. We define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change and decadal variability. We find that the overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for approximately half the species assessed; diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability. In addition, the majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. Negative effects of climate change are expected for approximately half of the species assessed, but some species are expected to be positively affected (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region). These results will inform research and management activities related to understanding and adapting marine fisheries management and conservation to climate change and decadal variability.

Climate change and fishing can have major impacts on the distribution of natural marine resources. Climate change alters the distribution of suitable habitat, forcing organisms to shift their range or attempt to survive under suboptimal conditions. Fishing reduces the abundance of marine populations and truncates their age structure leading to range contractions or shifts. Along the east coast of the United States, there have been major changes in fish populations due to the impacts of fishing and subsequent regulations, as well as changes in the climate. Black sea bass, scup, summer flounder, and winter flounder are important commercial and recreational species, which utilize inshore and offshore waters on the northeast shelf. We examined the distributions of the four species with the Northeast Fisheries Science Center trawl surveys to determine if the along-shelf centres of biomass had changed over time and if the changes were attributed to changes in temperature or fishing pressure through changes in abundance and length structure. Black sea bass, scup, and summer flounder exhibited significant poleward shifts in distributions in at least one season while the Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Bight stock of winter flounder did not shift. Generalized additive modelling indicated that the changes in the centres of biomass for black sea bass and scup in spring were related to climate, while the change in the distribution of summer flounder was largely attributed to a decrease in fishing pressure and an expansion of the length–age structure. While the changes in ocean temperatures will have major impacts on the distribution of marine taxa, the effects of fishing can be of equivalent magnitude and on a more immediate time scale. It is important for management to take all factors into consideration when developing regulations for natural marine resources.

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