Health care services that support the hospital-to-home transition can improve outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF). OBJECTIVE To test the effectiveness of the Patient-Centered Care Transitions in HF transitional care model in patients hospitalized for HF.

BackgroundBehaviours such as smoking, poor diet, physical inactivity, and unhealthy alcohol consumption are leading risk factors for death. We assessed the Canadian burden attributable to these behaviours by developing, validating, and applying a multivariable predictive model for risk of all-cause death.MethodsA predictive algorithm for 5 y risk of death—the Mortality Population Risk Tool (MPoRT)—was developed and validated using the 2001 to 2008 Canadian Community Health Surveys. There were approximately 1 million person-years of follow-up and 9,900 deaths in the development and validation datasets. After validation, MPoRT was used to predict future mortality and estimate the burden of smoking, alcohol, physical inactivity, and poor diet in the presence of sociodemographic and other risk factors using the 2010 national survey (approximately 90,000 respondents). Canadian period life tables were generated using predicted risk of death from MPoRT. The burden of behavioural risk factors attributable to life expectancy was estimated using hazard ratios from the MPoRT risk model.FindingsThe MPoRT 5 y mortality risk algorithms were discriminating (C-statistic: males 0.874 [95% CI: 0.867–0.881]; females 0.875 [0.868–0.882]) and well calibrated in all 58 predefined subgroups. Discrimination was maintained or improved in the validation cohorts. For the 2010 Canadian population, unhealthy behaviour attributable life expectancy lost was 6.0 years for both men and women (for men 95% CI: 5.8 to 6.3 for women 5.8 to 6.2). The Canadian life expectancy associated with health behaviour recommendations was 17.9 years (95% CI: 17.7 to 18.1) greater for people with the most favourable risk profile compared to those with the least favourable risk profile (88.2 years versus 70.3 years). Smoking, by itself, was associated with 32% to 39% of the difference in life expectancy across social groups (by education achieved or neighbourhood deprivation).ConclusionsMultivariable predictive algorithms such as MPoRT can be used to assess health burdens for sociodemographic groups or for small changes in population exposure to risks, thereby addressing some limitations of more commonly used measurement approaches. Unhealthy behaviours have a substantial collective burden on the life expectancy of the Canadian population.

ObjectivesTo examine access to palliative care between different disease trajectories and compare to other geographic areas.DesignA retrospective population-based decedent cohort study using linked administrative data.SettingOntario, Canada.ParticipantsOntario decedents between 1 April 2010 and 31 December 2012. Patients were categorised into disease trajectories: terminal illness (eg, cancer), organ failure (eg, chronic heart failure), frailty (eg, dementia), sudden death or other.InterventionsReceipt of palliative care services from institutional and community settings, derived from a validated list of palliative care codes from multiple administrate databases.Outcome measuresReceiving any palliative care services in the last year of life (yes/no), intensity (total days) and time of initiation of palliative care, in hospital and community sectors. Multivariable analysis examined the association between disease trajectory and the receipt of palliative care in the last year of life.ResultsWe identified 235 159 decedents in Ontario. In the last year of life, 88% of terminal illness, 44% of organ failure and 32% of frailty decedents accessed at least one palliative care service. Most care was provided during an inpatient hospitalisation. Terminal illness decedents received twice as many palliative care days (mean of 49 days) compared with organ failure and frailty decedents. Patients with terminal illness initiated palliative care median of 107 days before death compared with median of 19 days among those using the US Medicare hospice benefit.ConclusionsTerminal illness decedents are more likely to receive any palliative care, with increased intensity and earlier before death than organ failure or frailty decedents. These data serve as a useful comparison for other countries with similar and different healthcare systems and eligibility criteria.