Ecological risk assessors face increasing demands to assess more chemicals, with greater speed and accuracy, and to do so using fewer resources and experimental animals. New approaches in biological and computational sciences may be able to generate mechanistic information that could help in meeting these challenges. However, to use mechanistic data to support chemical assessments, there is a need for effective translation of this information into endpoints meaningful to ecological risk-effects on survival, development, and reproduction in individual organisms and, by extension, impacts on populations. Here we discuss a framework designed for this purpose, the adverse outcome pathway (AOP). An AOP is a conceptual construct that portrays existing knowledge concerning the linkage between a direct molecular initiating event and an adverse outcome at a biological level of organization relevant to risk assessment. The practical utility of AOPs for ecological risk assessment of chemicals is illustrated using five case examples. The examples demonstrate how the AOP concept can focus toxicity testing in terms of species and endpoint selection, enhance across-chemical extrapolation, and support prediction of mixture effects. The examples also show how AOPs facilitate use of molecular or biochemical endpoints (sometimes referred to as biomarkers) for forecasting chemical impacts on individuals and populations. In the concluding sections of the paper, we discuss how AOPs can help to guide research that supports chemical risk assessments and advocate for the incorporation of this approach into a broader systems biology framework.

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The long-term risks of pesticides to wildlife in the EU currently are assessed by comparing the lowest no-observed-effect concentration (NOEC) determined from the suite of endpoints measured in existing avian and mammalian laboratory reproduction tests with estimated exposure concentrations by calculating Toxicity to Exposure Ratios (TERs). Regulatory authorities experience difficulties when assessing long-term risks because of the lack of accepted methods to improve the ecological realism of exposure and toxicity estimates and understand risks at a population level. This paper describes an approach for interpreting existing avian and mammalian toxicity test data that divides breeding cycles into several discrete phases and identifies specific test endpoints as indicators of direct pesticide effects possible at each phase. Based on the distribution of breeding initiation dates for a species of concern and the dates of pesticide applications, this approach compares the phase-specific toxicity endpoint with the expected pesticide exposure levels during each of the breeding phases. The fate of each breeding attempt is determined through a series of decision points. The cumulative reproductive response of individuals in a breeding population based on this decision framework provides a means of examining the estimated risks over the course of the breeding season and deriving an overall metric of the impact of the pesticide on reproduction. Research needed to further improve the approach is discussed.

Sixty breeding pairs of captive American kestrels (Falco sparverius) were exposed to a range of sublethal dietary concentrations of mercury (Hg), in the form of methylmercuric chloride, and their subsequent reproduction was measured. Egg production, incubation performance, and the number and percent of eggs hatched decreased markedly between 3.3 and 4.6 mg/kg dry weight of Hg (1.2 and 1.7 mg/kg wet wt), in the diet. The number of fledglings and the percent of nestlings fledged were reduced markedly at 0.7 mg/kg dry weight (0.3 mg/kg wet wt) and declined further between 2 and 3.3 mg/kg dry weight (0.7 and 1.2 mg/kg wet wt). Dietary concentrations of >or=4.6 mg/kg dry weight (1.7 mg/kg wet wt) were associated with total fledging failure. The estimated decline in fledged young per pair (24%, Bayesian regression) for kestrels consuming 0.7 mg/kg dry weight (0.3 mg/ kg wet wt) raises concerns about population maintenance in areas subject to high inputs of anthropogenic Hg. Mercury concentrations in 20 second-laid eggs collected from all groups were related to dietary concentrations of Hg, and the Hg concentrations in 19 of these eggs were related to eggs laid and young fledged. Concentrations of Hg in eggs from the highest diet group (5.9 mg/kg dry wt; 2.2 mg/kg wet wt) were higher than egg concentrations reported for either wild birds or for captive birds (nonraptors) fed dry commercial food containing 5 mg/kg methylmercury. Accumulation ratios of Hg from diets to eggs were higher than those reported for feeding studies with other species.