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An analysis of accident statistics reveals that over 50% of pilot-caused civil aviation accident fatalities are the result of faulty pilot judgment. Although the FAA requires examiners to evaluate pilot judgment, it provides no definition or criteria against which such an evaluation can be made. In spite of the statistics implicating pilot judgment in many aviation fatalities, attempts to teach it are almost nonexistent. It is but a slight overstatement to say that good pilot judgment is learned by the lucky and the cautious over many years of varied flying experiences. This paper examines some of the decision-research literature in an attempt to provide an operational definition of pilot judgment and to suggest ways that pilot judgment may be taught and evaluated in civil aviation.

Good old ideas for pictorial flight displays that were once impractical warrant reconsideration in light of current microcomputing and display technology. Among the ideas are the contact analog, highway in the sky, and flight path predictor concepts. Basic pictorial display principles established in the 1950s and 1960s have been supported by additional experimental findings in the 1970s. These include pictorial realism, magnification, integration, compatible motion, frequency separation, pursuit presentation, quickening, and predicting. An extended analysis of dynamic display variables provides a broadened conceptual foundation for future multifactor experimental optimization of forward-looking pictorial flight displays.

In an empirical test of various prediction and quickening display algorithms, 18 professional pilot-subjects made four curved-path landing approaches in a GAT-2 simulator using each of 18 dynamically different display configurations in a within-subject design. Results Indicate that second-and third-order predictor displays provide the best lateral performance. Intermediate levels of prediction and quickening provide best vertical control. Prediction quickening algorithms of increasing computational order significantly reduce aileron, rudder, and elevator control responses, reflecting successive reductions in cockpit work load. Whereas conventional crosspointer displays are not adequate for curved landing approaches, perspective displays with predictors and some vertical dimension quickening are highly effective.

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