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This study constructs measures of aggregate price uncertainty for four industrialized countries (Canada, West Germany, Great Britain, and the United States) and attempts to assess the extent to which more rapid and more variable price changes appear to have contributed to increased aggregate price uncertainty. For this purpose we examine the relationship across countries and through time between the rate of inflation, inflation variability, and our measures of price uncertainty. In addition we use our measures of price uncertainty to examine the hypothesis, variously put forward by Marshall, Keynes, Milton Friedman, and Okun, that higher aggregate price uncertainty is likely to result in lower real output and higher unemployment. Our results suggest that the higher and more variable inflation of the 1970s did increase uncertainty about the aggregate price level in Canada, Great Britain and the United States, but the evidence for West Germany would not sustain such a conclusion. Finally, we did find evidence of a significant negative output effect of aggregate price uncertainty for Canada and the United Kingdom, but not for the United States or West Germany.

This paper assesses the effect of federal funds rate innovations on longer-term US nominal interest rates across different periods. The evidence suggests that these responses change with changes in the monetary policy regime. Time periods considered are pre-and post-1979 and different Federal Reserve Chairman's tenure. The response of longer-term interest rates to federal funds rate innovations are shown to be smaller and less persistent in the post-1979 period when the Federal Reserve placed more emphasis on inflation.

Abstract:Examining three flexible inflation targeting strategies, we find that a small concern for real exchange rate stability as a policy goal matters. First, it warrants the inclusion of the real exchange rate in Taylor rules and, second, it is sufficient to improve the performance of Taylor rules relative to optimal policy. Gains are substantial for domestic and REX inflation targets because a small weight on real exchange rate fluctuations makes optimal policy less aggressive. The gains under CPI inflation targeting are considerably lower.

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