Although the “disconfirmation of expectations” model continues to dominate research and managerial practice, several limitations indicate that it is not a complete picture of satisfaction formation. The authors propose a new model of the satisfaction formation process that builds on the disconfirmation paradigm by specifying a more comprehensive model that includes two standards in a single model and specifically incorporates the impact of marketing communication. An empirical test of the model provides support for the hypothesized relationships and a better understanding of the mechanisms that produce satisfaction.

In a longitudinal study, the second-year-smoking status of adolescents who were initially Nonsmokers or Triers was predicted from their Year 1 standing o n three types of social psychological variables: Ajzen and Fishbein's factors (predicting smoking transitions from attitudes, normative beliefs and behavioral intentions about smoking); Jessor and Jessor's distal variables (predicting smoking transitions from more generalized personality and perceived environment factors), and smoking environment variables (predicting smoking transitions from the extent of smoking models in an adolescent's social milieu). The predictive power of these three categories of factors was compared. All three classes of social psychological variables were statistically significant predictors of smoking transition, although the Ajzen and Fishbein variables were more important for Triers while the Jessor and Jessor and smoking environment variables were more important for initial Never Smokers. Moreover, each category of variables made independent contributions to the prediction of smoking transition. Finally, there were several age and sex differences in the relative importance of predictor variables. Implications of these findings for the design of effective smoking prevention programs are discussed. Smoking prevention programs might be more effective if they were aimed at a specific high risk audience (as identified by the current study) rather than at a general adolescent population.Cigarette smoking is a negative health practice that is initiated primarily during the adolescent years (Public Health Service, 1976). National surveys have reported that smoking among adolescents (especially girls) increased almost 50% in a recent six-year period-from 15% in 1971 to 22% (Abelson, Fishburne, & Cisin, 1977. These findings point to the importance of targeting this age group for primary prevention campaigns, particularly when the disappointing results of smoking-cessation programs are considered (Levitt, 1979).

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The current study investigated four possible causal mechanisms underlying the false consensus effect in the context of cigarette smoking. Little support was found for attributional or conformity-based mechanisms. However, support for both a selective exposure and a motivational explanation was found.