Caries progression seems to follow universal, predictable rates, depending largely on the caries severity in populations: the higher the caries severity, the higher the progression rates. Quantification of these rates would allow prediction of future caries increments. Our aim was to describe caries progression rates in the primary and permanent dentition in Western populations (not in lesions) of children and adolescents. Therefore, we systematically searched MEDLINE-PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, and the Cochrane library for studies reporting caries progression data. Eligibility criteria were reporting empirical data from at least 2 full-mouth dental caries examinations in a closed cohort during a follow-up of at least 3 y, a first examination after 1974, a second examination before the age of 22 y, caries assessed as dentine caries (d3/D3), and caries reported in dmfs/DMFS (decayed, missing, and filled surfaces), dmft/DMFT (decayed, missing, and filled teeth), or caries-free participants. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement, we described the results for the primary and permanent dentition in a systematic review, performed a meta-analysis for the caries incidence rate in the permanent dentition, and conducted multivariate, hierarchical meta-regression analyses for the caries incidence rate and the increments in DMFS and DMFT. Of the 6,343 unique studies retrieved, 43 studies (56,376 participants) were included for systematic review and 32 for meta-analyses (39,429 participants). The annual decline in caries-free children in the permanent dentition ranged from 0.8% to 10.2%. The annual increment ranged from 0.07 to 1.77 in DMFS and from 0.06 to 0.73 in DMFT. The pooled caries incidence rate was 0.11 (0.09–0.13) per person-year at risk. Meta-regression analyses showed that the methods of individual studies influenced pooled caries incidence rates and increments in DMFS and DMFT. This should be taken into account in planning and evaluation of oral health care services. However, the caries incidence rate is promising for prediction of future caries increments in populations.

BackgroundIt is well known that treatment variation exists in oral healthcare, but the consequences for oral health are unknown as the development of outcome measures is still in its infancy. The aim of this study was to identify and develop outcome measures for oral health and explore their performance using health insurance claims records and clinical data from general dental practices.MethodsThe Dutch healthcare insurance company Achmea collaborated with researchers, oral health experts, and general dental practitioners (GDPs) in a proof of practice study to test the feasibility of measures in general dental practices. A literature search identified previously described outcome measures for oral healthcare. Using a structured approach, identified measures were (i) prioritized, adjusted and added to after discussion and then (ii) tested for feasibility of data collection, their face validity and discriminative validity. Data sources were claims records from Achmea, clinical records from dental practices, and prospective, pre-determined clinical assessment data obtained during routine consultations.ResultsIn total eight measures (four on dental caries, one on tooth wear, two on periodontal health, one on retreatment) were identified, prioritized and tested. The retreatment measure and three measures for dental caries were found promising as data collection was feasible, they had face validity and discriminative validity. Deployment of these measures demonstrated variation in clinical practices of GDPs. Feedback of this data to GDPs led to vivid discussions on best practices and quality of care. The measure ‘tooth wear’ was not considered sufficiently responsive; ‘changes in periodontal health score’ was considered a controversial measure. The available data for the measures ‘percentage of 18-year-olds with no tooth decay’ and ‘improvement in gingival bleeding index at reassessment’ was too limited to provide accurate estimates per dental practice.ConclusionsThe evaluated measures ‘time to first restoration’, ‘distribution of risk categories for dental caries’, ‘filled-and-missing score’ and ‘retreatment after restoration’, were considered valid and relevant measures and a proxy for oral health status. As such, they improve the transparency of oral health services delivery that can be related to oral health outcomes, and with time may serve to improve these oral health outcomes.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12903-017-0410-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.