Extreme distribution is the distribution of a random variable that focuses on determining the probability of small values in the tail areaof the distribution. This distribution is widely used in various fields, one of which is reinsurance. An outbreak catastrophe is non-natural disaster that can pose an extreme risk of economic loss to a country that is exposed to it. To anticipate this risk, the government of a country can insure it to a reinsurance company which is then linkedto bonds in the capital market so that new securities are issued, namely outbreakcatastrophe bonds. In pricing, knowledge of the extreme distribution of economic losses due to outbreak catastrophe is indispensable. Therefore, this study aims to determine the extreme distribution model of economic losses due to outbreak catastrophe whose models will be determined by the approaches and methods of Extreme Value Theory and Peaks Over Threshold, respectively. The threshold value parameter of the model will be estimated by Kurtosis Method, while the other parameters will be estimated with Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method based on Newton-Raphson Iteration. The result of the research obtained is the resulting model of extreme value distribution of economic losses due to outbreak catastrophe that can be used by reinsurance companies as a tool in determining the value of risk in the outbreak catastrophe bonds.

Based on data from the Central Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Indonesia, the average length of schooling of Indonesian citizens is continuously increasing every year. This increase is predicted to continue in the future. However, it has yet to be discovered how the increasing rate in the average length of schooling will occur. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the increasing rate of the average length of schooling of Indonesian citizens in the future. The data used is the average length of schooling of Indonesian citizens from 2010 to 2021. The analytical method used is the discrete-time Markov chain. Furthermore, the states representing the increasing rate in the average length of schooling used are divided into two: the increasing rate in the average length of schooling that is smaller and larger than the average. Based on the analysis results, the probability that the increasing rate in Indonesian citizens' average length of schooling will be less than the average in the future is 0.4. In contrast, the probability that the increasing rate in Indonesian citizens' average length of schooling will be greater than the average in the future is 0.6. It indicates that Indonesian citizens will have a high education level in the future. The results can be used as the future education state projection of Indonesian citizens so that it can be accompanied by empowerment.