Summary 1.Climate change has been shown to affect the phenology of many organisms, but interestingly these shifts are often unequal across trophic levels, causing a mismatch between the phenology of organisms and their food. 2. We consider two alternative hypotheses: consumers are constrained to adjust sufficiently to the lower trophic level, or prey species react more strongly than their predators to reduce predation. We discuss both hypotheses with our analyses of changes in phenology across four trophic levels: tree budburst, peak biomass of herbivorous caterpillars, breeding phenology of four insectivorous bird species and an avian predator. ) have advanced, whereas raptor hatching dates showed no trend. 4. The caterpillar peak date was closely correlated with budburst date, as were the passerine hatching dates with the peak caterpillar biomass date. In all these cases, however, the slopes were significantly less than unity, showing that the response of the consumers is weaker than that of their food. This was also true for the avian predator, for which hatching dates were not correlated with the peak availability of fledgling passerines. As a result, the match between food demand and availability deteriorated over time for both the passerines and the avian predators. 5. These results could equally well be explained by consumers' insufficient responses as a consequence of constraints in adapting to climate change, or by them trying to escape predation from a higher trophic level, or both. Selection on phenology could thus be both from matches of phenology with higher and lower levels, and quantifying these can shed new light on why some organisms do adjust their phenology to climate change, while others do not.

One consequence of climate change is an increasing mismatch between timing of food requirements and food availability. Such a mismatch is primarily expected in avian long-distance migrants because of their complex annual cycle, and in habitats with a seasonal food peak. Here we show that insectivorous long-distance migrant species in The Netherlands declined strongly (1984 -2004) in forests, a habitat characterized by a short spring food peak, but that they did not decline in less seasonal marshes. Also, within generalist long-distance migrant species, populations declined more strongly in forests than in marshes. Forest-inhabiting migrant species arriving latest in spring declined most sharply, probably because their mismatch with the peak in food supply is greatest. Residents and short-distance migrants had non-declining populations in both habitats, suggesting that habitat quality did not deteriorate. Habitat-related differences in trends were most probably caused by climate change because at a European scale, long-distance migrants in forests declined more severely in western Europe, where springs have become considerably warmer, when compared with northern Europe, where temperatures during spring arrival and breeding have increased less. Our results suggest that trophic mismatches may have become a major cause for population declines in long-distance migrants in highly seasonal habitats.

Elimination or reduction of inbreeding depression by natural selection at the contributing loci (purging) has been hypothesized to effectively mitigate the negative effects of inbreeding in small isolated populations. This may, however, only be valid when the environmental conditions are relatively constant. We tested this assumption using Drosophila melanogaster as a model organism. By means of chromosome balancers, chromosomes were sampled from a wild population and their viability was estimated in both homozygous and heterozygous conditions in a favourable environment. Around 50% of the chromosomes were found to carry a lethal or sublethal mutation, which upon inbreeding would cause a considerable amount of inbreeding depression. These detrimentals were artificially purged by selecting only chromosomes that in homozygous condition had a viability comparable to that of the heterozygotes (quasi‐normals), thereby removing most deleterious recessive alleles. Next, these quasi‐normals were tested both for egg‐to‐adult viability and for total fitness under different environmental stress conditions: high‐temperature stress, DDT stress, ethanol stress, and crowding. Under these altered stressful conditions, particularly for high temperature and DDT, novel recessive deleterious effects were expressed that were not apparent under control conditions. Some of these chromosomes were even found to carry lethal or near‐lethal mutations under stress. Compared with heterozygotes, homozygotes showed on average 25% additional reduction in total fitness. Our results show that, except for mutations that affect fitness under all environmental conditions, inbreeding depression may be due to different loci in different environments. Hence purging of deleterious recessive alleles can be effective only for the particular environment in which the purging occurred, because additional load will become expressed under changing environmental conditions. These results not only indicate that inbreeding depression is environment dependent, but also that inbreeding depression may become more severe under changing stressful conditions. These observations have significant consequences for conservation biology.

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A fundamental assumption underlying the importance of genetic risks within conservation biology is that inbreeding increases the extinction probability of populations. Although inbreeding has been shown to have a detrimental impact on individual fitness, its contribution to extinction is still poorly understood. We have studied the consequences of different levels of prior inbreeding for the persistence of small populations using Drosophila melanogaster as a model organism. To this end, we determined the extinction rate of small vial populations differing in the level of inbreeding under both optimal and stress conditions, i.e. high temperature stress and ethanol stress. We show that inbred populations have a significantly higher short‐term probability of extinction than non‐inbred populations, even for low levels of inbreeding, and that the extinction probability increases with increasing inbreeding levels. In addition, we observed that the effects of inbreeding become greatly enhanced under stressful environmental conditions. More importantly, our results show that the impact of environmental stress becomes significantly greater for higher inbreeding levels, demonstrating explicitly that inbreeding and environmental stress are not independent but can act synergistically. These effects seem long lasting as the impact of prior inbreeding was still qualitatively the same after the inbred populations had been expanded to appreciable numbers and maintained as such for approximately 50 generations. Our observations have significant consequences for conservation biology.