No abstract

A "proliferator" seeks to complete a first small batch of fission weapons as quickly as possible, whereas an "interdictor" wishes to delay that completion for as long as possible. We develop and solve a max-min model that identifies resourcelimited interdiction actions that maximally delay completion time of the proliferator's weapons project, given that the proliferator will observe any such actions and adjust his plans to minimize that time. The model incorporates a detailed project-management (critical path method) submodel, and standard optimization software solves the model in a few minutes on a personal computer. We exploit off-the-shelf project-management software to manage a database, control the optimization, and display results. Using a range of levels for interdiction effort, we analyze a published case study that models three alternate uranium-enrichment technologies. The task of "cascade loading" appears in all technologies and turns out to be an inherent fragility for the proliferator at all levels of interdiction effort. Such insights enable policy makers to quantify the effects of interdiction options at their disposal, be they diplomatic, economic, or military.

-AA theoretical study of the use of a heterodyne reception CO 2 laser radar for imaging and target detection is reported. Specifically , a mathematical system model for the radar is developed, incorporating the statistical effects of propagation through atmospheric turbulence , target speckle and glint, and heterodyne-reception shot noise. This model is used to find the image signal-to-noise ratio of a matched-filter envelope detector receiver and the target-detection probability of the optimum likelihood-ratio processor. For realistic parameter values it is shown that turbulence-induced beam spreading and coherence loss may be neglected.Target speckle and atmospheric scintillation, however , present serious limitations on single-frame imaging and target detection performance.

We describe the industrial project that a "proliferator" would conduct to produce a first, small batch of nuclear weapons. From refining yellowcake ore to final weapons assembly, we highlight the project's tasks and their interactions. The proliferator can choose alternative production technologies that offer quicker completion, but at higher cost in terms of limited resources. The proliferator can also expedite his project by devoting more resources to critical tasks. From physics and chemistry, we determine raw material requirements. From industrial engineering and materials science, we convert these requirements into estimates of the time, manpower, energy, and money required to complete each task under normal and expedited conditions. Using generalized projectmanagement analysis tools, we then estimate the earliest possible completion time of the project, assuming two different levels of resource availability. We also estimate the time required to complete a weapon if some of the project's steps can be skipped; for example, if the proliferator acquires stolen, highly enriched uranium metal.