Aggregate measures of real GDP growth obtained from the GDP by Industry Accounts often differ from the featured measure of real GDP growth obtained from the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs). We find that differences in source data account for most of the difference in aggregate real output growth rates; very little is due to the treatment of the statistical discrepancy, differences in aggregation methods, or the contributions formula. Moreover, we demonstrate that with consistent data, use of BEA's Fisher-Ideal aggregation procedures to aggregate value added over industries yields the same estimate of real GDP as aggregation over final commodities. Thus, two major approaches to measuring real GDP-the "expenditures" approach used in the NIPAs and the "production" or "industry" approach used in the Industry Accounts-give the same answer under certain conditions. This result enables us to show that the "exact contributions" formula that the NIPAs use to calculate commodity contributions to change in real GDP can also be used to calculate consistent industry contributions to change in real GDP. We also find that using some newly developed datasets would help to bring the aggregate real output measures into closer alignment.
The decade before the financial crisis of 2008 was a time of large changes in sourcing patterns for manufactured goods, particularly after China's entry into the WTO in 2001. Sourcing substitution reduced the prices paid by wholesale level buyers of these goods, but these price reductions were mostly not captured in the U.S. import price indexes and the U.S. GDP deflator. To find plausible values for sourcing bias we first use data on changes in sourcing patterns over 1997–2007 to predict the effect of the reported price discount from the new emerging market suppliers. Next, we compare adjusted import price indexes for products used for household consumption with consumer price indexes. In the GDP deflator for apparel imports, sourcing bias is found to average 0.6 percent per year, and for durable goods it averages 1 percent per year. During the decade of rapidly changing sourcing patterns, a tenth of the reported speedup in multifactor productivity growth of the U.S. private business sector may have come from sourcing bias in the deflators for imports.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.