Erosion is a major threat to soil resources in Europe, and may impair their ability to deliver a range of ecosystem goods and services. This is reflected by the European Commission's Thematic Strategy for Soil Protection, which recommends an indicator-based approach for monitoring soil erosion. Defined baseline and threshold values are essential for the evaluation of soil monitoring data. Therefore, accurate spatial data on both soil loss and soil genesis are required, especially in the light of predicted changes in climate patterns, notably frequency, seasonal distribution and intensity of precipitation. Rates of soil loss are reported that have been measured, modelled or inferred for most types of soil erosion in a variety of landscapes, by studies across the spectrum of the Earth sciences. Natural rates of soil formation can be used as a basis for setting tolerable soil erosion rates, with soil formation consisting of mineral weathering as well as dust deposition. This paper reviews the concept of

We present the most comprehensive pan-European assessment of future changes in cropland and grassland soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks to date, using a dedicated process-based SOC model and state-of-the-art databases of soil, climate change, land-use change and technology change. Soil carbon change was calculated using the Rothamsted carbon model on a European 10 Â 10 0 grid using climate data from four global climate models implementing four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios (SRES). Changes in net primary production (NPP) were calculated by the Lund-Potsdam-Jena model. Land-use change scenarios, interpreted from the narratives of the IPCC SRES story lines, were used to project changes in cropland and grassland areas. Projections for 1990-2080 are presented for mineral soil only.Climate effects (soil temperature and moisture) will tend to speed decomposition and cause soil carbon stocks to decrease, whereas increases in carbon input because of increasing NPP will slow the loss. Technological improvement may further increase carbon inputs to the soil. Changes in cropland and grassland areas will further affect the total soil carbon stock of European croplands and grasslands. While climate change will be a key driver of change in soil carbon over the 21st Century, changes in technology and land-use change are estimated to have very significant effects.When incorporating all factors, cropland and grassland soils show a small increase in soil carbon on a per area basis under future climate (1-7 t C ha À1 for cropland and 3-6 t C ha À1 for grassland), but when the greatly decreasing area of cropland and grassland are accounted for, total European cropland stocks decline in all scenarios, and grassland stocks decline in all but one scenario. Different trends are seen in different regions. For Europe (the EU25 plus Norway and Switzerland), the cropland SOC stock decreases from 11 Pg in 1990 by 4-6 Pg (39-54%) by 2080, and the grassland SOC stock increases from 6 Pg in 1990 to 1.5 Pg (25%) under the B1 scenario, but decreases to 1-3 Pg (20-44%) under the other scenarios. Uncertainty associated with the land-use and technology scenarios remains unquantified, but worst-case quantified uncertainties are 22.5% for croplands and 16% for grasslands, equivalent to potential errors of 2.5 and 1 Pg SOC, respectively. This is equivalent to 42-63% of the predicted SOC stock change for croplands and 33-100% of the predicted SOC stock change for grasslands. Implications for accounting for SOC changes under the Kyoto Protocol are discussed.

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The estimation of soil carbon content is of pressing concern for soil protection and in mitigation strategies for global warming. This paper describes the methodology developed and the results obtained in a study aimed at estimating organic carbon contents (%) in topsoils across Europe. The information presented in map form provides policy-makers with estimates of current topsoil organic carbon contents for developing strategies for soil protection at regional level. Such baseline data are also of importance in global change modelling and may be used to estimate regional differences in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and projected changes therein, as required for example under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, after having taken into account regional differences in bulk density.The study uses a novel approach combining a rule-based system with detailed thematic spatial data layers to arrive at a much-improved result over either method, using advanced methods for spatial data processing. The rule-based system is provided by the pedo-transfer rules, which were developed for use with the European Soil Database. The strong effects of vegetation and land use on SOC have been taken into account in the calculations, and the influence of temperature on organic carbon contents has been considered in the form of a heuristic function. Processing of all thematic data was performed on harmonized spatial data layers in raster format with a 1 km  1 km grid spacing. This resolution is regarded as appropriate for planning effective soil protection measures at the European level. The approach is thought to be transferable to other regions of the world that are facing similar questions, provided adequate data are available for these regions. However, there will always be an element of uncertainty in estimating or determining the spatial distribution of organic carbon contents of soils.