The optimal pharmacokinetic (PK) required for a drug candidate to elicit efficacy is highly dependent on the targeted pharmacology, a relationship that is often not well characterized during early phases of drug discovery. Generic assumptions around PK and potency risk misguiding screening and compound design toward nonoptimal absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion (ADME) or molecular properties and ultimately may increase attrition as well as hit-to-lead and lead optimization timelines. The present work introduces model-based target pharmacology assessment (mTPA), a computational approach combining physiologically based pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PBPK/PD) modeling, sensitivity analysis, and machine learning (ML) to elucidate the optimal combination of PK, potency, and ADME specific for the targeted pharmacology. Examples using frequently encountered PK/PD relationships are presented to illustrate its application, and the utility and benefits of deploying such an approach to guide early discovery efforts are discussed.

Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) is a valuable tool in the pharmaceutical industry, presenting opportunities for online analyses to achieve real-time assessment of intermediates and finished dosage forms. The purpose of this work was to investigate the effect of experimental designs on prediction performance of quantitative models based on NIRS using a five-component formulation as a model system. The following experimental designs were evaluated: five-level, full factorial (5-L FF); three-level, full factorial (3-L FF); central composite; I-optimal; and D-optimal. The factors for all designs were acetaminophen content and the ratio of microcrystalline cellulose to lactose monohydrate. Other constituents included croscarmellose sodium and magnesium stearate (content remained constant). Partial least squares-based models were generated using data from individual experimental designs that related acetaminophen content to spectral data. The effect of each experimental design was evaluated by determining the statistical significance of the difference in bias and standard error of the prediction for that model's prediction performance. The calibration model derived from the I-optimal design had similar prediction performance as did the model derived from the 5-L FF design, despite containing 16 fewer design points. It also outperformed all other models estimated from designs with similar or fewer numbers of samples. This suggested that experimental-design selection for calibration-model development is critical, and optimum performance can be achieved with efficient experimental designs (i.e., optimal designs).

Many critical decisions faced in early discovery require a thorough understanding of the dynamic behavior of pharmacological pathways following target engagement. From fundamental decisions on the optimal target to pursue and the ultimate drug product profile (combination of modality, potency, and compound properties) expected to elicit the desired clinical outcome to tactical program decisions such as what chemical series to pursue, what chemical properties require optimization, and what compounds to synthesize and progress, all demand detailed consideration of pharmacodynamics. Model-based target pharmacology assessment (mTPA) is a computational approach centered around large-scale virtual exploration of pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models built early in discovery to guide these decisions. The present work summarizes several examples (use cases) from programs at GlaxoSmithKline that demonstrate the utility of mTPA throughout the drug discovery lifecycle.