The 2021 German federal election led to the formation of the so-called traffic-light coalition between the Social Democratic Party, the Green Party, and the Free Democratic Party, which had never before been agreed upon at the federal level. Over a long period, German parties had competed for government in relatively clear and ideologically homogeneous camps. However, fragmentation of the party system made majorities for two-party alliances more and more unlikely, and party elites needed to reassess new partnerships. Most of these novel coalitions, like the traffic-light coalition, are also cross-cutting dimensions of political competition in Germany. This raises the question of how voters reflect upon these novel government alternatives and make up their minds about which of them they would like to see in office.In this paper, I argue that a nuanced view on issues rather than general ideology offers more precise insights on the origins of voters’ coalition preferences. Furthermore, as salience theory suggests, not every issue is equally important for every part of the citizenry. Therefore, it is expected that the effects of voter–coalition distance as well as intracoalition heterogeneity on specific issues are moderated by individuals’ saliency of the respective issues. These expectations are tested using data from the 2021 preelection cross-section survey of the German Longitudinal Election Study. The results emphasize the relevance of specific issues as well as salience in the formation of voters’ coalition preferences.
The GLES Open Science Challenge 2021 was a pilot project aimed at demonstrating that registered reports are an appropriate and beneficial publication format in quantitative political science that helps to increase transparency and replicability in the research process and thus yields substantial and relevant contributions to our discipline. The project resulted in the publication of this special issue, which includes seven registered reports based on data from the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) collected in the context of the 2021 German federal election. This concluding article of the special issue brings together the perspectives of the participating authors, reviewers, organizers, and editors in order to take stock of the different experiences gained and lessons learned in the course of the project. We are confident that future projects of a similar nature in political science, as well as authors, reviewers, and editors of registered reports, will benefit from these reflections.
With more parties in parliament, coalition politics became much more complex in Germany. Against this background, the chapter analyzes the dynamics of coalition preferences and vote choices in Germany between 2009 and 2017. It registers a considerable amount of stability of coalition preferences. Apparently, coalitions were an important political object for voters, to which they related consistently even in times of a rapidly changing political environment. In addition, the chapter also finds that coalition preferences had an independent effect on vote choices in each of the three elections. Using long-term tracking surveys as well as panel data, the analysis reveals a surprising long-term stability of coalition effects. While most studies attribute coalition effects on electoral choices to instrumental motivations of voters, the chapter argues that the stability of coalition voting cannot be accounted for without also acknowledging the non-instrumental or expressive motivations of voters.
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