Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an important indicator used to determine inflation. The main objective of this research was to compare the forecasting ability of two time-series models using Zambia Monthly Consumer Price Index. We used monthly CPI data which were collected from January 2003 to December 2017. The models that were compared are the Autoregressive Integrated Moving average (ARIMA) model and Multicointegration (ECM) model. Results show that the ECM was the best fit model of CPI in Zambia since it showed smallest errors measures. Lastly, a forecast was done using the ECM and results show an average growth rate for food CPI at 6.63% and an average growth rate for nonfood CPI at 7.41%. Forecasting CPI is an important factor for any economy because it is essential in economic planning for the future. Hence, identifying a more accurate forecasting model is a major contribution to the development of Zambia.

Fever is one the most reported out-patient complaint and predictor for malaria illness in regions were the disease is endemic. The capacity for care-givers of febrile children under 5 years to recognise fever early is very important in the control of malaria. There has been a decline in health seeking-behaviour among care-givers of febrile children under-5 years in Zambia, from 36% in 2015 to 26% in 2018 as reported by the Malaria Indicator Surveys (MIS) in Zambia. The study identified and compared the proportion and factors associated with health-seeking behaviour among care-givers of febrile children suspected to have malaria between the 2015 and 2018 MIS in Zambia.MethodsThis was a comparative cross-sectional analysis of the 2015 and 2018 MIS data in Zambia. Analysis of factors associated with health-seeking behaviour among care-givers of children was undertaken using logistic regression with STATA software version 16 SE.Of the total 4272 respondents, 67% were children in the 2015 MIS, 50.6% were males and 58.5% were less-than 24 months old. At adjusted logistic regression in the 2015 MIS; age less-than 12 months compared to 12-59 months was not associated with health-seeking behaviour (AOR 1.6;95% CI 0.8 to 3.1; p=0.117). Middle wealth quintiles compared to children in other quintiles were more likely to seek prompt health-care after onset of fever, (OR=3.08; CI 95% 1.26 - 7.56; p 0.014). While in 2018, children less 12 months compared to 12 months-59 months (OR 0.58; 95% CI 0.24 -1.39; p=0.220) was not associated with health-seeking behaviour. Residence: rural compared to urban (OR= 5.47; 95% CI 1.06 - 28.05; p<0.05) was associated with care-givers’ promptness to seek health-care for children under 5 years.ConclusionEarly health-seeking behaviour among febrile children was associated with wealth status and rural residence in both the 2015 and 2018 surveys. Furthermore, there was a significant difference in health-seeking behaviour between the two years. It is critical that strengthened socio behavior change communication is on the importance of prompt health-seeking among care-givers of children under 5 years. Provision of health services as close to the family as possible is important as it enhances health-seeking as time taken and distance health facilities are reduced.