Previous works on vote-buying have highlighted that an informational advantage allows party machines to efficiently distribute discretionary transfers to voters. However, the microfoundations that allow party machines to electorally exploit their informational advantage have not yet been elucidated. The probabilistic model in this paper provides the microfounded mechanism that explains how party machines translate, with a voter-customized strategy, their informational advantage into more efficient allocation of discretionary transfers and win elections with higher probabilities than their contenders. Furthermore, its probabilistic design allows the model to account for why party machines target their own supporters with discretionary transfers. Indepth interviews with 120 brokers from Argentina motivate the model.

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Artículo aceptado para su publicación el 30 de abril de 2019. El autor agradece a Juan Germano de Isonomía Consultores y Gustavo Marangoni de M y R Asociados, por compartir bases de datos y generosamente incorporar las preguntas relevantes a este estudio en sus encuestas. Asimismo agradece a Gonzalo Elizondo por su invalorable asistencia técnica y a Lucas Ronconi cuyos comentarios y consejos ayudaron a mejorar notablemente la calidad de este artículo.

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Why do some governments manage to curb protest while others cannot and turmoil escalates to a social outbreak? This study proposes a theoretical argument that specifies how discretionary spending reduces conflict, highlighting the role of social movements in managing protests. It examines this and alternative arguments in Argentina, a country with strong social movements and historically large mobilizations, using statistical analysis with an original database on protests and a population of 364 national government programs between 2008 and 2019. The article makes a contribution by finding a differential effect between specific types of social spending, programmatic and discretional, and protests. It also specifies the linkage between the main variables using qualitative evidence during two presidencies. The goal of discretionary distribution is not to win an election but to ensure governance. The article finally raises some comparative implications on the role of social movements and welfare spending in Latin America.