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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may August 2012Abstract:The paper investigates the long-run consequences of a phase-out of nuclear energy for the Swiss economy. We apply the CITE model, a CGE model with fully endogenous growth, and complement it with a bottom-up model. We find that the nuclear phase-out can be achieved at relatively low costs, even when the expansion capacities of other technologies are limited. Consumer welfare decreases by 0.4% at the maximum compared to business as usual. Our results show that an economy can cope well with ambitious energy policies through sufficient innovation. Economic growth is not slowed down significantly. The phase-out policy contributes to a structural shift in favor of innovative, energyextensive sectors. It does not work against the climate policy goals but rather accelerates the transition to a less energy-dependent economy.JEL-Classification: Q43, C68, Q48, O41

Summary The paper applies a theoretical model with increasing capital varieties to study the impact of energy on growth. It translates a multisectoral framework version to a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Swiss economy. We study the impacts of a policy aiming at enabling the economy to reach the longterm target of a 2000-Watt-society, implying a substantial reduction of the energy input in the future. We find that (i) the aggregate effects of an ambitious energy efficiency policy turn out to be moderate, (ii) all sectors in the economy continue to grow at robust positive rates (although growth rates decrease in some sectors compared to business-as-usual), and (iii) some industries experience substantially higher growth under regulation. We focus on the different sectoral growth effects to simulate future structural change.

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may April 2010Abstract The paper develops a new type of CGE model to predict the effects of carbon policies on consumption, welfare, and sectoral development in the long run. Growth is fully endogenous, based on increasing specialization in capital varieties, and specific in each sector of the economy. The benchmark scenario is calculated based on the endogenous gains from specialization which carry over to policy simulation. Applying the model to the Swiss economy we find that a carbon policy following the Copenhagen Accord entails a moderate but not negligible welfare loss compared to development without any negative effects of climate change. Energy extensive as well as capital and knowledge intensive sectors profit in the form of increased growth rates.