State-of-the-art computer codes for simulating real physical systems are often characterized by vast number of input parameters. Performing uncertainty quantification (UQ) tasks with Monte Carlo (MC) methods is almost always infeasible because of the need to perform hundreds of thousands or even millions of forward model evaluations in order to obtain convergent statistics. One, thus, tries to construct a cheap-to-evaluate surrogate model to replace the forward model solver. For systems with large numbers of input parameters, one has to deal with the curse of dimensionality -the exponential increase in the volume of the input space, as the number of parameters increases linearly. Suitable dimensionality reduction techniques are used to address the curse of dimensionality. A popular class of dimensionality reduction methods are those that attempt to recover a low dimensional representation of the high dimensional feature space. However, such methods often tend to overestimate the intrinsic dimensionality of the input feature space. In this work, we demonstrate the use of deep neural networks (DNN) to construct surrogate models for numerical simulators.We parameterize the structure of the DNN in a manner that lends the DNN surrogate the interpretation of recovering a low dimensional nonlinear 1

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) tasks, such as model calibration, uncertainty propagation, and optimization under uncertainty, typically require several thousand evaluations of the underlying computer codes. To cope with the cost of simulations, one replaces the real response surface with a cheap surrogate based, e.g., on polynomial chaos expansions, neural networks, support vector machines, or Gaussian processes (GP). However, the number of simulations required to learn a generic multivariate response grows exponentially as the input dimension increases. This curse of dimensionality can only be addressed, if the response exhibits some special structure that can be discovered and exploited. A wide range of physical responses exhibit a special structure known as an active subspace (AS). An AS is a linear manifold of the stochastic space characterized by maximal response variation. The idea is that one should first identify this low dimensional manifold, project the high-dimensional input onto it, and then link the projection to the output. If the dimensionality of the AS is low enough, then learning the link function is a much easier problem than the original problem of learning a high-dimensional function. The classic approach to discovering the AS requires gradient information, a fact that severely limits its applicability. Furthermore, and partly because of its reliance to gradients, it is not able to handle noisy observations. The latter is an essential trait if one wants to be able to propagate uncertainty through stochastic simulators, e.g., through molecular dynamics codes. In this work, we develop a probabilistic version of AS which is gradient-free and robust to observational noise. Our approach relies on a novel Gaussian process regression with built-in dimensionality reduction. In particular, the AS is represented as an orthogonal projection matrix that serves as yet another covariance function hyper-parameter to be estimated from the data. To train the model, we design a two-step maximum likelihood optimization procedure that ensures the orthogonality of the projection matrix by exploiting recent results on the Stiefel manifold, i.e., the manifold of matrices with orthogonal columns. The additional benefit of our probabilistic formulation, is that it allows us to select the dimensionality of the AS via the Bayesian information criterion. We validate our approach by showing that it can discover the right AS in synthetic examples without gradient information using both noiseless and noisy observations. We demonstrate that our method is able to discover the same AS as the classical approach in a challenging one-hundred-dimensional problem involving an elliptic stochastic partial differential equation with random conductivity. Finally, we use our approach to study the effect of geometric and material uncertainties in the propagation of solitary waves in a one dimensional granular system.

Stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) are ubiquitous in engineering and computational sciences. The stochasticity arises as a consequence of uncertainty in input parameters, constitutive relations, initial/boundary conditions, etc. Because of these functional uncertainties, the stochastic parameter space is often high-dimensional, requiring hundreds, or even thousands, of parameters to describe it. This poses an insurmountable challenge to response surface modeling since the number of forward model evaluations needed to construct an accurate surrogate grows exponentially with the dimension of the uncertain parameter space; a phenomenon referred to as the curse of dimensionality.State-of-the-art methods for high-dimensional uncertainty propagation seek to alleviate the curse of dimensionality by performing dimensionality reduction in the uncertain parameter space. However, one still needs to perform forward model evaluations that potentially carry a very high computational burden. We propose a novel methodology for high-dimensional uncertainty propagation of elliptic SPDEs which lifts the requirement for a deterministic forward solver.Our approach is as follows. We parameterize the solution of the elliptic SPDE using a deep residual network (ResNet). In a departure from traditional squared residual (SR) based loss function for training the ResNet, we introduce a physicsinformed loss function derived from variational principles. Specifically, our loss function is the expectation of the energy functional of the PDE over the stochastic variables. We demonstrate our solver-free approach through various examples where the elliptic SPDE is subjected to different types of high-dimensional input uncertainties. Also, we solve high-dimensional uncertainty propagation and inverse problems.

A problem of considerable importance within the field of uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the development of efficient methods for the construction of accurate surrogate models. Such efforts are particularly important to applications constrained by high-dimensional uncertain parameter spaces. The difficulty of accurate surrogate modeling in such systems, is further compounded by data scarcity brought about by the large cost of forward model evaluations. Traditional response surface techniques, such as Gaussian process regression (or Kriging) and polynomial chaos are difficult to scale to high dimensions. To make surrogate modeling tractable in expensive highdimensional systems, one must resort to dimensionality reduction of the stochastic parameter space. A recent dimensionality reduction technique that has shown great promise is the method of 'active subspaces'. The classical formulation of active subspaces, unfortunately, requires gradient information from the forward model -often impossible to obtain. In this work, we present a simple, scalable method for recovering active subspaces in high-dimensional stochastic systems, without gradientinformation that relies on a reparameterization of the orthogonal active subspace projection matrix, and couple this formulation with deep neural networks. We demonstrate our approach on synthetic and real world datasets and show favorable predictive comparison to classical active subspaces. NOMENCLATUREW Active subspace projection matrix g Link function ξ Stochastic parameters