Although the prevalence of leprosy has declined over the years, there is no evidence that incidence rates are falling. A method of early detection of those people prone to develop the most infectious form of leprosy would contribute to breaking the chain of transmission. Prophylactic treatment of serologically identified high-risk contacts of incident patients should be an operationally feasible approach for routine control programs. In addition, classification of high-risk household contacts will allow control program resources to be more focused. In this prospective study, we examined the ability of serology used for the detection of antibodies to phenolic glycolipid I of Mycobacterium leprae to identify those household contacts of multibacillary leprosy patients who had the highest risk of developing leprosy. After the start of multidrug therapy for the index case, a new case of leprosy developed in one in seven of the 178 households studied. In households where new cases appeared, the seropositivity rates were significantly higher (P < 0.001) than those in households without new cases. Seropositive household contacts had a significantly higher risk of developing leprosy (relative hazard adjusted for age and sex [aRH], 7.2), notably multibacillary leprosy (aRH ‫؍‬ 24), than seronegative contacts.

Relapse rate estimates after 2 year WHO multiple drug therapy (MDT) in multi-bacillary (MB) leprosy vary. Between 1987 and 1994, 500 MB leprosy patients completing 2 year MDT were enrolled in a prospective relapse study. The majority of patients (N = 316) were treated and followed at the physician-staffed Cebu Skin Clinic (CSC), whereas others (N = 184) received therapy from government clinics and were followed by CSC technicians in the field. Relapse definition was an increased bacteriologic index (BI) and new skin lesions, supplemented with mouse footpad inoculations. Through 2002, follow-up was 5368 person-years, with a mean of 10.8 years per patient. The absolute relapse rate was 3% (15/498; 0.28/100 person-years), with a cumulative risk estimate of 3.9% at 15 yrs. For a subset of 217 patients followed for >or=12 yrs or until relapse, relapses occurred in 9% (13/142) attending the CSC, versus 3% (2/75) assessed in the field (p = 0.09). The rate for patients followed at CSC for >or=12 yrs and a pre-treatment BI >or=2.7+ was 13% (13/98). All relapses were BL or LL, with pre-treatment BI's of >or=2.7+. Relapses occurred long after completion of therapy, between 3 and 11 yrs from the midpoint of the examination without relapse to detection, or between 6 to 13 yrs to the actual year of detection, 7 occurring at >or=10 yrs. Lesion material from all relapses contained M. leprae that was rifampin and clofazimine sensitive, whereas 3 showed partial or full dapsone resistance. [Follow-up rigor and time], medical expertise, and pre-treatment bacterial load influence relapse rates after 2 yr MDT.

We evaluated the incidence, severity, and duration of reactional states in 139 multibacillary (MB) leprosy patients in the first 2 years after the completion of the 1 year regimen of multidrug therapy (MDT) currently recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) and compared those findings with 295 MB leprosy patients treated with the same regimen previously recommended for 2 years. During the first year after the completion of 1 year MDT, patients experienced 1 or more reactional states 27% of the time, the vast majority being lepra type 1 reactions (reversal reactions, RR), whereas patients who received 2 year MDT experienced a reactional state during that time period only 8% of the time (P < 0.001). Furthermore, during the first year after the completion of therapy, and during the first 2 years, both the number of reactional states and reversal reactions were significantly (P ≤ 0.004) more frequent, severe, of longer duration, and more commonly associated with neuritis.

A total of 100 untreated new leprosy patients were recruited prospectively and examined for the presence of phenolic glycolipid I (PGL-I) antigen in their serum specimens by dot enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) using rabbit anti-PGL-I antiserum. The presence of circulating PGL-I antigen was closely related to the bacterial indices (BI) of the patients. The PGL-I antigen was detectable in 27 (93.1%) of 29 patients with a BI of 4.0 or above and in 15 (68.2%) of 22 patients with a BI of 3.0 to 3.9. However, none of the 37 patients with a BI of less than 1.9 had detectable PGL-I antigen by the methods used in this study. The level of PGL-I in serum declined rapidly by about 90% 1 month after the start of multidrug therapy. This study showed clearly that anti-PGL-I IgM antibodies and circulating PGL-I antigen levels reflect the bacterial loads in untreated leprosy patients. The serological parameters based on the PGL-I antigen may therefore be useful in the assessment of leprosy patients at the time of diagnosis and possibly in monitoring patients following chemotherapy.