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Antibody levels predict vaccine efficacy Symptomatic COVID-19 infection can be prevented by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccines. A “correlate of protection” is a molecular biomarker to measure how much immunity is needed to fight infection and is key for successful global immunization programs. Gilbert et al . determined that antibodies are the correlate of protection in vaccinated individuals enrolled in the Moderna COVE phase 3 clinical trial (see the Perspective by Openshaw). By measuring binding and neutralizing antibodies against the viral spike protein, the authors found that the levels of both antibodies correlated with the degree of vaccine efficacy. The higher the antibody level, the greater the protection afforded by the messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine. Antibody levels that predict mRNA vaccine efficacy can therefore be used to guide vaccine regimen modifications and support regulatory approvals for a broader spectrum of the population. —PNK

Background At interim analysis in a phase 3, observer-blinded, placebo-controlled clinical trial, the mRNA-1273 vaccine showed 94.1% efficacy in preventing coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). After emergency use of the vaccine was authorized, the protocol was amended to include an open-label phase. Final analyses of efficacy and safety data from the blinded phase of the trial are reported. Methods We enrolled volunteers who were at high risk for Covid-19 or its complications; participants were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive two intramuscular injections of mRNA-1273 (100 μg) or placebo, 28 days apart, at 99 centers across the United States. The primary end point was prevention of Covid-19 illness with onset at least 14 days after the second injection in participants who had not previously been infected with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The data cutoff date was March 26, 2021. Results The trial enrolled 30,415 participants; 15,209 were assigned to receive the mRNA-1273 vaccine, and 15,206 to receive placebo. More than 96% of participants received both injections, 2.3% had evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection at baseline, and the median follow-up was 5.3 months in the blinded phase. Vaccine efficacy in preventing Covid-19 illness was 93.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 91.0 to 94.8), with 55 confirmed cases in the mRNA-1273 group (9.6 per 1000 person-years; 95% CI, 7.2 to 12.5) and 744 in the placebo group (136.6 per 1000 person-years; 95% CI, 127.0 to 146.8). The efficacy in preventing severe disease was 98.2% (95% CI, 92.8 to 99.6), with 2 cases in the mRNA-1273 group and 106 in the placebo group, and the efficacy in preventing asymptomatic infection starting 14 days after the second injection was 63.0% (95% CI, 56.6 to 68.5), with 214 cases in the mRNA-1273 group and 498 in the placebo group. Vaccine efficacy was consistent across ethnic and racial groups, age groups, and participants with coexisting conditions. No safety concerns were identified. Conclusions The mRNA-1273 vaccine continued to be efficacious in preventing Covid-19 illness and severe disease at more than 5 months, with an acceptable safety profile, and protection against asymptomatic infection was observed. (Funded by the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; COVE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04470427 .)

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) and variants of interest (VOIs) with decreased susceptibility to neutralization has generated interest in assessments of booster doses and variant-specific vaccines. Clinical trial participants who received a two-dose primary series of the COVID-19 vaccine mRNA-1273 approximately 6 months earlier entered an open-label phase 2a study (NCT04405076) to evaluate the primary objectives of safety and immunogenicity of a single booster dose of mRNA-1273 or variant-modified mRNAs, including multivalent mRNA-1273.211. As the trial is currently ongoing, this exploratory interim analysis includes preliminary descriptive results only of four booster groups (n = 20 per group). Immediately before the booster dose, neutralizing antibodies against wild-type D614G virus had waned (P < 0.0001) relative to peak titers against wild-type D614G measured 1 month after the primary series, and neutralization titers against B.1.351 (Beta), P.1 (Gamma) and B.1.617.2 (Delta) VOCs were either low or undetectable. Both the mRNA-1273 booster and variant-modified boosters were safe and well-tolerated. All boosters, including mRNA-1273, numerically increased neutralization titers against the wild-type D614G virus compared to peak titers against wild-type D614G measured 1 month after the primary series; significant increases were observed for mRNA-1273 and mRNA-1273.211 (P < 0.0001). In addition, all boosters increased neutralization titers against key VOCs and VOIs, including B.1.351, P.1. and B.1.617.2, that were statistically equivalent to peak titers measured after the primary vaccine series against wild-type D614G virus, with superior titers against some VOIs. This trial is ongoing.

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