We provide evidence of a violation of the informativeness principle whereby lucky successes are overly rewarded. We isolate a quasi-experimental situation where the success of an agent is as good as random. To do so, we use high-quality data on football (soccer) matches and select shots on goal that landed on the goal posts. Using nonscoring shots, taken from a similar location on the pitch, as counterfactuals to scoring shots, we estimate the causal effect of a lucky success (goal) on the evaluation of the player's performance. We find clear evidence that luck is overly influencing managers' decisions and evaluators' ratings. Our results suggest that this phenomenon is likely to be widespread in economic organizations.

We study how agents adapt their behaviour to variations of incentives in dynamic contests. We investigate a real dynamic contest with large stakes: professional tennis matches. Situations in which balls bounce very close to the court’s lines are used as the setting of a quasi-experiment providing random variations in winning probability. We find evidence of a momentum effect for men whereby winning a point has a positive causal impact on the probability to win the next one. This behaviour is compatible with a reaction to the asymmetry of incentives between leaders and followers. We do not find momentum for women.

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The discharging of a gun results in the formation of extremely small particles known as gunshot residues (GSR). These may be deposited on the skin and clothing of the shooter, on other persons present, and on nearby items or surfaces. Several factors and their complex interactions affect the number of detectable GSR particles, which can deeply influence the conclusions drawn from likelihood ratios or posterior probabilities for prosecution hypotheses of interest. We present Bayesian network models for casework examples and demonstrate that probabilistic quantification of GSR evidence can be very sensitive to the assumptions concerning the model structure, prior probabilities, and the likelihood components. This finding has considerable implications for the use of statistical quantification of GSR evidence in the legal process.

Minimax and its generalization to mixed strategy Nash equilibrium is the cornerstone of our understanding of strategic situations that require decision makers to be unpredictable. Using a dataset of nearly half a million serves from over 3000 matches, we examine whether the behavior of professional tennis players is consistent with the Minimax Hypothesis. The large number of matches in our dataset requires the development of a novel statistical test, which we show is more powerful than the tests used in prior related studies. We …nd that win rates conform remarkably closely to the theory for men, but conform somewhat less neatly for women. We show that the behavior in the …eld of more highly ranked (i.e., better) players conforms more closely to theory. The authors are grateful for comments from seminar participants at the University of New South Wales and conference participants at GAMES 2016, the 2015 World Meetings of the ESA, the 10th ANZWEE meetings, and EBCC 2016. We are also grateful to Mark Walker for useful comments. Wooders is grateful for …nancial support from the Australian Research Council's Discovery Projects funding scheme (project number DP140103566).