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The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts), quantify macrofinancial risks in terms of growth, and monitor the evolution of risks to economic activity over time. By using GaR analysis, policymakers can quantify the likelihood of risk scenarios, which would serve as a basis for preemptive action. This paper offers practical guidance on how to conduct GaR analysis and draws lessons from country case studies. It also discusses an Excel-based GaR tool developed to support the IMF's bilateral surveillance efforts.

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may AbstractWe analyze the impact of technology on production and trade in services, focusing on the foreign exchange market. We identify exogenous technological changes by the connection of countries to submarine fiberoptic cables used for electronic trading, but which were not laid for purposes related to the foreign exchange market. We estimate the impact of cable connections on the share of offshore foreign exchange transactions. Cable connections between local markets and matching servers in the major financial centers lower the fixed costs of trading currencies and increase the share of currency trades occurring onshore. At the same time, however, they attenuate the effect of standard spatial frictions such as distance, local market liquidity, and restrictive regulations that otherwise prevent transactions from moving to the major financial centers. Our estimates suggest that the second effect dominates. Technology dampens the impact of spatial frictions by up to 80 percent and increases, in net terms, the share of offshore trading by 21 percentage points. Technology also has economically important implications for the distribution of foreign exchange transactions across financial centers, boosting the share in global turnover of London, the world's largest trading venue, by as much as one-third. Non-technical summaryThe impact of technology on services, and specifically on where services are produced and traded, is one of the great unanswered questions of the post-industrial age. One view is that cheap information and communication technology (ICT) significantly attenuates the effect of distance and other trading barriers on the geography of production. Another view is that distance and other trading barriers still matter significantly. In this paper we shed light on this debate using the global foreign exchange market as a case study.What might be called the "Flat World" hypothesis (after Friedman 2005) is that location, distance and other aspects of geography no longer matter in a ubiquitous 24-7 FX marketplace. In a world of high-speed communication, foreign exchange transactions can take place anywhere and should be observed in a growing number of places, reflecting the availability of relevant inputs.Alternatively, what might be called the "Flash Boys" hypothesis (after Lewis 2014) suggests that location matters more importantly than ever in a 21st-century foreign exchange market characterized by competiti...

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