This study uses data from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System and Delta Cost Project to identify institutional predictors of bachelor’s degree completion rates for Pell Grant recipients and nonrecipients at public and private not-for-profit 4-year institutions. Descriptive analyses show that Pell recipients are relatively concentrated in institutions with demographic and structural characteristics associated with lower completion rates, including lower SAT scores, enrollment, and residential intensity. Multivariate analyses show that controlling for demographic and structural characteristics explains the observed negative relationship between an institution’s representation of Pell Grant recipients and its completion rates for Pell recipients. At public 4-year institutions, per full-time equivalent expenditures on instruction and institutional grants are positively related to Pell completion rates, while net price for low-income students is negatively related, after controlling for demographic and structural characteristics.

This article reflects on the major themes that emerge in the studies presented in this volume, concentrating on implications for federal policy and future research. We emphasize that for future federal policy to be successful, it will need to be revamped in ways that are relatively nuanced, encouraging (among other things) enrollment and persistence to degree completion among students who might not otherwise take loans or go to college, protecting taxpayers and students against investments in low-performing colleges, making federal loan programs more understandable to students who need them, and reducing the risks of student loan nonrepayment. For future research we make numerous recommendations, including calls for attention to debt aversion, income-based loan repayment, and the effects of borrowing on a broad range of student outcomes.

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