Ecology has long been troubled by the controversy over how populations are regulated. Some ecologists focus on the role of environmental effects, whereas others argue that density-dependent feedback mechanisms are central. The relative importance of both processes is still hotly debated, but clear examples of both processes acting in the same population are rare. Key-factor analysis (regression of population changes on possible causal factors) and time-series analysis are often used to investigate the presence of density dependence, but such approaches may be biased and provide no information on actual demographic rates. Here we report on both density-dependent and density-independent effects in a murid rodent pest species, the multimammate rat Mastomys natalensis (Smith, 1834), using statistical capture-recapture models. Both effects occur simultaneously, but we also demonstrate that they do not affect all demographic rates in the same way. We have incorporated the obtained estimates of demographic rates in a population dynamics model and show that the observed dynamics are affected by stabilizing nonlinear density-dependent components coupled with strong deterministic and stochastic seasonal components.

Models and empirical studies on host selection in plant-insect, algae-amphipod, host-parasite and prey-predator systems assume that oviposition preference is determined by the quality of the oviposition site for offspring development. According to the oviposition-preference-offspring-performance hypothesis, oviposition-preference hierarchy should correspond to host suitability for offspring development because females maximize their fitness by optimizing offspring performance. We show, we believe for the first time, that adult feeding site and related adult performance may explain most of the variation in adult feeding and oviposition site selection of an oligophagous grass miner, Chromatomyia nigra (Diptera). This study advances our understanding of the complex interactions between plants and herbivores because it shows that host-preference patterns are not only shaped by the optimization of offspring performance, as previously assumed, but also by the optimization of adult performance.

Recently, human cases of nephropathia epidemica (NE) due to Puumala virus infection in Europe have increased. Following the hypothesis that high reservoir host abundance induces higher transmission rates to humans, explanations for this altered epidemiology must be sought in factors that cause bank vole (Myodes glareolus) abundance peaks. In Western Europe, these abundance peaks are often related to high tree seed production, which is supposedly triggered by specific weather conditions. We evaluated the relationship between tree seed production, climate and NE incidence in Belgium and show that NE epidemics are indeed preceded by abundant tree seed production. Moreover, a direct link between climate and NE incidence is found. High summer and autumn temperatures, 2 years and 1 year respectively before NE occurrence, relate to high NE incidence. This enables early forecasting of NE outbreaks. Since future climate change scenarios predict higher temperatures in Europe, we should regard Puumala virus as an increasing health threat.

JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org. This content downloaded from 131.91.169.193 on FriSummary 1. Rainfall data were collated for years preceding historical outbreaks of Mastomys rats in East Africa in order to test the hypothesis that such outbreaks occur after long dry periods. 2. Rodent outbreaks were generally not preceded by long dry periods. 3. Population dynamics of Mastomys natalensis rats in Tanzania are significantly affected by the distribution of rainfall during the rainy season. 4. All previous rodent outbreaks in Tanzania were preceded by abundant rainfall early in the rainy season, i.e. towards the end of the year. 5. A flow chart is constructed to assess the likelihood of rodent outbreaks up to 10 months beforehand, utilizing rainfall data.

Dynamics of hantavirus infection and population densities in rodents were investigated from 1996 to 1999 in southern Belgium. Evidence of Puumala infection was restricted to Clethrionomys glareolus. Although the serotype was not determined, antibodies against hantavirus were also found in eight Apodemus sylvaticus. In fall 1996, the seroprevalence in C. glareolus was high (20.1%, 37 of 184) and the infection was widely distributed in the area studied whereas a focal occurrence of positive rodents and lower seroprevalence rates were recorded in spring 1997 (14.3%, six of 42), fall 1997 (6. 6%, 11 of 166), spring 1998 (6.4%, three of 47) and fall 1998 (6.7%, 11 of 165). A pullulation of rodents was observed in spring 1999 and was associated with a markedly higher seroprevalence in C. glareolus (47.7%, 189 of 396). In all seasons, infection rates in adults were higher than in juveniles and subadults. No significant difference of prevalence was recorded between males and females. In two trapping sites, the temporary disappearance of positive animals after a crash in rodent populations suggests that a threshold in density is necessary for the maintenance of the enzootic cycle.