The value of resources devoted annually to armaments by the nations of the world has increased more than three-fold in the post-war period. In 1948, when post-war demobilization had essentially run its course, world military expenditure stabilized at about the level that prevailed in 1938 after an explosive arms race that had tripled expenditure levels in 5 years. Measured in constant 1970 prices, world military expenditure in 1948 amounted to about $ 65.0 billion; by 1975 it was $ 214 billion.'The most conspicuous aspect of the evolution of world military expenditure over this 27-year period has been its unevenness. Around 95% of the three-fold increase has been concentrated in three periods of very rapid increase in conjunction with a war or a major crisis. In each case, world miltary expenditure levelled off at or only slightly below the peak reached during the war or crisis. The thesis of this article is that we appear to be in the opening stages of a fourth major disturbance, one perhaps more broadly-based than any of the preceding ones.

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