This article presents a narrative of the unfolding of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) since the theory was first formulated in 1986. The first part recapitulates the foundations of the theory, and documents the spread of the SDT to the point that it now covers most European populations. Also for Europe, it focuses on the relationship between the SDT and the growing heterogeneity in period fertility levels. It is shown that the current positive relationship between SDT and TFR levels is not a violation of the SDT theory, but the outcome of a "split correlation" with different sub-narratives concerning the onset of fertility postponement and the degree of subsequent recuperation in two parts of Europe. The second part of the article addresses the issue of whether the SDT has spread or is currently spreading in industrialized Asian countries. Evidence gathered for Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan is presented. That evidence pertains to both the macro-level (national trends in postponement of marriage and parenthood, rise of cohabitation) and the micro-level (connections between individual values orientations and postponement of parenthood). Strong similarities are found with SDT patterns in Southern Europe, except for the fact that parenthood is still very rare among Asian cohabiting partners.

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This article gives a concise overview of the theoretical development of the concept of the "second demographic transition" since it was coined in 1986, its components, and its applicability, first to European populations and subsequently also to non-European societies as well. Both the demographic and the societal contrasts between the first demographic transition (FDT) and the second demographic transition (SDT) are highlighted. Then, the major criticisms of the SDT theory are outlined, and these issues are discussed in the light of the most recent developments in Europe, the United States, the Far East, and Latin America. It turns out that three major SDT patterns have developed and that these evolutions are contingent on much older systems of kinship and family organization.second demographic transition | subreplacement fertility | cohabitation | household structure | values T he first or "classic" demographic transition refers to the historical declines in mortality and fertility, as witnessed from the 18th century onward in several European populations and continuing at present in most developing countries. The end point of the first demographic transition (FDT) was supposed to be an older stationary population corresponding with replacement fertility (i.e., just over two children on average), zero population growth, and life expectancies higher than 70 y. Because there would be an ultimate balance between deaths and births, there would be no "demographic" need for sustained immigration. Moreover, households in all parts of the world would converge toward the nuclear and conjugal type, composed of married couples and their offspring. Such were the expectations in the early 1970s. Thereafter, as the baby boom of the 1960s was followed by the baby bust of the 1970s, these expectations were altered to accommodate the possibility of oscillating fertility as a function of labor-market conditions.The second demographic transition (SDT) viewpoint, jointly formulated by Lesthaeghe and van de Kaa in 1986 (1, 2), in contrast, sees no such equilibrium as the end point. Rather, they argue that new developments from the 1970s onward can be expected to bring about sustained subreplacement fertility, a multitude of living arrangements other than marriage, a disconnection between marriage and procreation, and no stationary population (3, 4). Furthermore, populations will face declining sizes if not complemented by new migrants (i.e., "replacement migration"), and they will also be much older than envisaged by the FDT as a result of lower fertility and considerable additional gains in longevity. Migration streams will not be capable of stemming aging altogether, however, because migrants also age and lower their own fertility with time spent in receiving nations.In the long run, mass immigration might stabilize population sizes; but this outcome would still involve the further growth of "multicultural societies." On the whole, the SDT brings a variety of new social challenges, including those associated with further aging, ...

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This special collection is in honor of Jan M. Hoem on his 65 th birthday. The authors presented their papers at a working party at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock, Germany in April 2004. The collection is edited by Gunnar Andersson and Gerda Neyer.