Thermal groundwater is currently being exploited for district-scale heating in many locations worldwide. The chemical compositions of these thermal waters reflect the provenance and circulation patterns of the groundwater, which are controlled by recharge, rock type and geological structure. Exploring the provenance of these waters using multivariate statistical analysis (MSA) techniques increases our understanding of the hydrothermal circulation systems, and provides a reliable tool for assessing these resources. Hydrochemical data from thermal springs situated in the Carboniferous Dublin Basin in eastcentral Ireland were explored using MSA, including hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) and principal component analysis (PCA), to investigate the source aquifers of the thermal

This is an open access article published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits distribution and reproduction for non-commercial purposes, provided the author and source are cited. General rightsCopyright for the publications made accessible via the Queen's University Belfast Research Portal is retained by the author(s) and / or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing these publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights.Take down policy The Research Portal is Queen's institutional repository that provides access to Queen's research output. Every effort has been made to ensure that content in the Research Portal does not infringe any person's rights, or applicable UK laws. If you discover content in the Research Portal that you believe breaches copyright or violates any law, please contact openaccess@qub.ac.uk. This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain. lithofacies; Sundarbans; Ganges-Brahmaputra delta. A C C E P T E D M A N U S C R I P T ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT AbstractResearch over the past two decades on the Holocene sediments from the tide dominated west side of the lower Ganges delta has focussed on constraining the sedimentary environment through grain size distributions (GSD). GSD has traditionally been assessed through the use of probability density function (PDF) methods (e.g. log-normal, log skew-Laplace functions), but these approaches do not acknowledge the compositional nature of the data, which may compromise outcomes in lithofacies interpretations. The use of PDF approaches in GSD analysis poses a A C C E P T E D M A N U S C R I P T ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT 2 series of challenges for the development of lithofacies models, such as equifinal distribution coefficients and obscuring the empirical data variability. In this study a methodological framework for characterising GSD is presented through compositional data analysis (CODA) plus a multivariate statistical framework. This provides a statistically robust analysis of the fine tidal estuary sediments from the West Bengal Sundarbans, relative to alternative PDF approaches.

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Here, we present evidence to suggest that the Mourne Mountains, Northern Ireland, were last occupied by glaciers during the Younger Dryas Stadial. The margins of these glaciers are marked by moraines, chronologically constrained to the Younger Dryas by Schmidt hammer exposure dating. Reconstructions indicate that these glaciers had equilibrium‐line altitudes (ELAs) ranging from 356 ± 33 m (a.s.l.) to 570 ± 9 m (a.s.l.), with a mean of 475 ± 36 m (a.s.l.). ELAs rise from west to east, probably reflecting the contribution of windblown snow and ice to the accumulation of Younger Dryas glaciers in the western Mournes. Taking this into consideration, a mean ‘climatic’ ELA of 529 ± 4 m (a.s.l.) is calculated for the mountains as a whole. Assuming a mean annual sea level air temperature of −8 °C, and an annual temperature range of 34 °C, degree‐day modelling suggests that during the Younger Dryas, accumulation at the ‘climatic’ ELA of glaciers in the Mournes was 846–990 mm a−1. This suggests increased aridity, relative to present, and is consistent with other parts of NW Europe, where reduced precipitation alongside notable cooling is thought to reflect increased North Atlantic sea ice extent during the Younger Dryas.

Winter roads play a vital role in linking communities and building economies in the northern high latitudes. With these regions warming two to three times faster than the global average, climate change threatens the long-term viability of these important seasonal transport routes. We examine how climate change will impact the world’s busiest heavy-haul winter road – the Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR) in northern Canada. The FLake freshwater lake model is used to project ice thickness for a lake at the start of the TCWR – first using observational climate data, and second using modelled future climate scenarios corresponding to varying rates of warming ranging from 1.5°C to 4°C above preindustrial temperatures. Our results suggest that 2°C warming could be a tipping point for the viability of the TCWR, requiring at best costly adaptation and at worst alternative forms of transportation. Containing warming to the more ambitious temperature target of 1.5°C pledged at the 2016 Paris Agreement may be the only way to keep the TCWR viable – albeit with a shortened annual operational season relative to present. More widely, we show that higher regional winter warming across much of the rest of Arctic North America threatens the long-term viability of winter roads at a continental scale. This underlines the importance of continued global efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions to avoid many long-term and irreversible impacts of climate change.