Background NHS Psychiatric beds comprise mental illness and intellectual disability beds. Penrose hypothesised that the number of psychiatric in-patients was inversely related to prison population size. Aims To ascertain whether the Penrose hypothesis held true in England between 1960 and 2018–2019. Method A time-series analysis explored the association between total prison population and NHS psychiatric beds; this was also tested for the male and female prison populations, using non-psychiatric beds as a comparator. Associations were explored with time lags of up to 20 years. Linear regression was conducted to estimate the size of the effect of bed closures. Results NHS psychiatric beds decreased 93% and the prison population increased 208%. A strong (r =−0.96) and highly significant negative correlation between these changes was found. Annual reduction in psychiatric bed numbers was associated with an increase in prison population, strongest at a lag of 10 years. The closure of mental illness and intellectual disability beds was associated with increases in female prisoners 10 years later. The only significant explanatory variable for the increase in male prison population was intellectual disability bed reduction. Conclusions The Penrose hypothesis held true between 1960 and 2018–2019 in England: psychiatric bed closures were associated with increases in prison population up to 10 years later. For every 100 psychiatric beds closed, there were 36 more prisoners 10 years later: 3 more female prisoners and 33 more male prisoners. Our results suggest that the dramatic increase in the female prison population may relate to the closure of NHS beds.

Research in police custody risk assessment and health screening has historically been focused on detainees arrival in custody with much less emphasis on pre-release risk assessment (PRRA). This research aimed to evaluate a modified PRRA piloted in one police station in the North East of England for two weeks in March/April 2019 against College of Policing’s Authorised Professional Practice (APP) guidance. A controlled before and after study design was conducted. During the intervention phase, custody suite (A) piloted the modified PRRA whilst control custody suite (B) continued to use standard PRRA. Randomised, anonymised custody records were analysed; 300 records were taken from each suite during the intervention phase, and a further 300 from each suite during the period preceding intervention. PRRA records were scored against criteria derived from the College of Policing’s APP guidance. Improvements were seen in seven outcomes with greatest effects observed in recording risks associated with mental health, physical health and substance misuse.

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