Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between drain fluid amylase value on the first postoperative day (DFA1) and clinically relevant fistula (CR-POPF) after distal pancreatectomy (DP), and to identify the cut-off of DFA1 that optimizes CR-POPF prediction. Background: DFA1 is a well-recognized predictor of CR-POPF after pancreatoduodenectomy, but its role in DP is largely unexplored. Methods: DFA1 levels were correlated with CR-POPF in 2 independent multi-institutional sets of DP patients: developmental (n = 338; years 2012 to 2017) and validation cohort (n = 166; years 2006 to 2016). Cut-off choice was based on Youden index calculation, and its ability to predict CR-POPF occurrence was tested in a multivariable regression model adjusted for clinical, demographic, operative, and pathological variables. Results: In the developmental set, median DFA1 was 1745 U/L and the CR-POPF rate was 21.9%. DFA1 correlated with CR-POPF with an area under the curve of 0.737 (P < 0.001). A DFA1 of 2000 U/L had the highest Youden index, with 74.3% sensitivity and 62.1% specificity. Patients in the validation cohort displayed different demographic and operative characteristics, lower values of DFA1 (784.5 U/L, P < 0.001), and reduced CR-POPF rate (10.2%, P < 0.001). However, a DFA1 of 2000 U/L had the highest Youden index in this cohort as well, with 64.7% sensitivity and 75.8% specificity. At multivariable analysis, DFA1 ≥2000 U/L was the only factor significantly associated with CR-POPF in both cohorts. Conclusion: A DFA1 of 2000 U/L optimizes CR-POPF prediction after DP. These results provide the substrate to define best practices and improve outcomes for patients receiving DP.

Objective: The purpose of this study is to determine preoperative factors that are predictive of malignancy in patients undergoing pancreatic resection for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN). Summary Background Data: IPMN of the pancreas may be precursor lesions to pancreatic cancer (PC) and represent a target for early diagnosis or prevention. While there has been much effort to define preoperative risk factors for malignant pathology, guidelines are ever-changing and controversy remains surrounding which patients would benefit most from resection. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of 901 consecutive patients obtained from two tertiary referral centers who underwent pancreatic resection for histologically proven IPMN between 2004 and 2017. Collected data included patient demographic characteristics, preoperative symptoms, radiological findings, and laboratory data. Results: Main pancreatic duct (MPD) dilatation was the only variable that was significantly associated with increased probability of malignancy (defined high-dysplasia or invasion) on both univariate and multivariate analysis. Even middle-range MPD dilatation from 5 mm to 9.9 mm (n = 286) was associated with increased odds of HG-IPMN (OR = 2.74; 95% CI = 1.80–4.16) and invasion (OR = 4.42; 95% CI = 2.55–7.66). MPD dilatation >10 mm (n = 150) had even greater odds of HG-IPMN (OR = 6.57; 95% CI = 3.94–10.98) and invasion (OR = 15.07; 95% CI = 8.21–27.65). A cutoff of 5 to 7 mm MPD diameter was determined to be the best predictor to discriminate between malignant and benign lesions. Conclusions: In agreement with current IPMN management guidelines, we found MPD dilatation, even low levels from 5 mm to 9.9 mm, to be the single best predictor of HG-IPMN or invasion, highlighting the critical role that MPD plays in the selection of surgical candidates.

Background & aims-Many patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PDAC) carry germline mutations associated with increased risk of cancer. It is not clear whether patients with intraductal