ObjectiveTo characterise the association between socioeconomic deprivation and adverse outcomes in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF).MethodsWe prospectively observed 1802 patients with CHF and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤45%, recruited in four UK hospitals between 2006 and 2014. We assessed the association between deprivation defined by the UK Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) and: mode-specific mortality (mean follow-up 4 years); mode-specific hospitalisation; and the cumulative duration of hospitalisation (after 1 year).ResultsA 45-point difference in mean IMD score was noted between patients residing in the least and most deprived quintiles of geographical regions. Deprivation was associated with age, sex and comorbidity, but not CHF symptoms, LVEF or prescribed drug therapy. IMD score was associated with the risk of age-sex adjusted all-cause mortality (6% higher risk per 10-unit increase in IMD score; 95% CI 2% to 10%; P=0.004), and non-cardiovascular mortality (9% higher risk per 10-unit increase in IMD score; 95% CI 3% to 16%; P=0.003), but not cardiovascular mortality. All-cause, but not heart failure-specific, hospitalisation was also more common in the most deprived patients. Overall, patients spent a cumulative 3.3 days in hospital during 1 year of follow-up, with IMD score being associated with the age-sex adjusted cumulative duration of hospitalisations (4% increase in duration per 10-unit increase in IMD score; 95% CI 3% to 6%; P<0.0005).ConclusionsSocioeconomic deprivation in people with CHF is linked to increased risk of death and hospitalisation due to an excess of non-cardiovascular events.

Background Noncardiovascular death is increasingly common in people with chronic heart failure ( CHF ), yet its causes remain poorly characterized. We aimed to define the prevalence of sepsis death in people with CHF and to ascertain its risk marker profile. Methods and Results We conducted a prospective cohort study of 1802 patients with CHF and left ventricular ejection fraction ≤45% attending CHF clinics in 4 United Kingdom hospitals between 2006 and 2014. Mode of death was defined over a 10.3‐year follow‐up period (mean 4 years). Competing risk regression defined mode‐specific hazard ratios for sepsis, other noncardiovascular, progressive heart failure, and sudden cardiac death in relation to established heart failure prognostic markers. Of 737 deaths, 173 (23.5%) were due to sepsis; respiratory tract infections accounted for 69.9% (n=121) of these events. Those who died from sepsis were older, had higher platelet counts, and had a higher prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease than those who died from other causes. Sepsis death was independently associated with older age (hazard ratio=1.05; 95% confidence interval 1.03‐1.07), greater prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (2.43; 1.74‐3.40), male sex (1.73; 1.16‐2.60), lower log serum vitamin D (0.68; 0.49‐0.95), and higher platelet count (1.002; 1.000‐1.005) than nonsepsis death. Established heart failure prognostic markers exhibited different patterns of association with sepsis death, other noncardiovascular death, progressive heart failure death, and sudden cardiac death. Conclusions Sepsis is a major contributor to death in people with CHF and has a different risk marker profile from other modes of death, suggesting that it may be amenable to targeted preventative strategies.

Background The Surprise Question: ‘would you be surprised if this patient were to die within the next year?’ has been shown to predict mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease and cancer. This prospective study aimed to determine whether the Surprise Question could identify heart failure patients with a prognosis of less than 1 year, and whether the Surprise Question can be used by different healthcare professionals. Methods and results Overall, 129 consecutive patients admitted with decompensated heart failure were included. Doctors and nurses were asked to provide a ‘surprised’ or ‘not surprised’ response to the Surprise Question for each patient. Patients were followed up until death or 1 year following study inclusion. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the Surprise Question were assessed. Cox regression was used to determine covariates significantly associated with survival. The Surprise Question showed excellent sensitivity (0.85) and negative predictive value (0.88) but only fair specificity (0.59) and positive predictive value (0.52) when asked of cardiologists. There were similar levels of accuracy between doctors and specialist nurses. The Surprise Question was significantly associated with all‐cause mortality in multivariate regression analysis (hazard ratio 2.8, 95% confidence interval 1.0–7.9, P = 0.046). Conclusion This study demonstrates that the Surprise Question can identify heart failure patients within the last year of life. Despite over‐classification of patients into the ‘not surprised’ category, the Surprise Question identified nearly all patients who were within the last year of life, whilst also accurately identifying those unlikely to die.

Background: Heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) is characterized by blunting of the positive relationship between heart rate and left ventricular (LV) contractility known as the force-frequency relationship (FFR). We have previously described that tailoring the rate-response programming of cardiac implantable electronic devices in patients with HFrEF on the basis of individual noninvasive FFR data acutely improves exercise capacity. We aimed to examine whether using FFR data to tailor heart rate response in patients with HFrEF with cardiac implantable electronic devices favorably influences exercise capacity and LV function 6 months later. Methods: We conducted a single-center, double-blind, randomized, parallel-group trial in patients with stable symptomatic HFrEF taking optimal guideline-directed medical therapy and with a cardiac implantable electronic device (cardiac resynchronization therapy or implantable cardioverter-defibrillator). Participants were randomized on a 1:1 basis between tailored rate-response programming on the basis of individual FFR data and conventional age-guided rate-response programming. The primary outcome measure was change in walk time on a treadmill walk test. Secondary outcomes included changes in LV systolic function, peak oxygen consumption, and quality of life. Results: We randomized 83 patients with a mean±SD age 74.6±8.7 years and LV ejection fraction 35.2±10.5. Mean change in exercise time at 6 months was 75.4 (95% CI, 23.4 to 127.5) seconds for FFR-guided rate-adaptive pacing and 3.1 (95% CI, −44.1 to 50.3) seconds for conventional settings (analysis of covariance; P =0.044 between groups) despite lower peak mean±SD heart rates (98.6±19.4 versus 112.0±20.3 beats per minute). FFR-guided heart rate settings had no adverse effect on LV structure or function, whereas conventional settings were associated with a reduction in LV ejection fraction. Conclusions: In this phase II study, FFR-guided rate-response programming determined using a reproducible, noninvasive method appears to improve exercise time and limit changes to LV function in people with HFrEF and cardiac implantable electronic devices. Work is ongoing to confirm our findings in a multicenter setting and on longer-term clinical outcomes. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov ; Unique identifier: NCT02964650.

Structured abstract BackgroundPatients with chronic heart failure (CHF) secondary to left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction (LVSD) are frequently deficient in vitamin D. Low vitamin D levels are associated with a worse prognosis. It is unclear whether vitamin D deficiency is a marker of disease severity or plays a pathophysiological role. ObjectivesThe VitamIN D treatIng patients with Chronic heArT failurE (VINDICATE) study was designed to establish the safety and efficacy of high-dose vitamin D supplementation in patients with CHF due to LVSD. MethodsWe enrolled 229 patients (179 men) with CHF due to LVSD and vitamin D deficiency ((25(OH) vitamin D3 <50nmol/L (<20ng/mL)) into a randomised, placebo-controlled double-blind trial of vitamin D supplementation.Participants were either allocated to one year of vitamin D3 supplementation (4000IU (100 g) 25(OH)D3 daily) or matching non-calcium-based placebo.The primary endpoint was change in six-minute walk distance from baseline to 12 months. Pre-specified secondary endpoints included change in left ventricular ejection fraction at one year, and safety measures of renal function and serum calcium concentration assessed every three months. ConclusionsOne year of 100 g daily 25-OH vitamin D3 supplementation does not improve 6-minute walk distance but has beneficial effects on LV structure and function in patients on contemporary optimal medical therapy. Further studies are necessary to determine whether these translate to improvements in outcomes.