The geological setting of Jakarta and its immediate surroundings are poorly understood, yet it is one of the few places in Indonesia that is impacted by earthquakes from both the Java subduction zone and active faults on land. In this study, a borehole seismic experiment with low noise characteristics was deployed to record seismic activity on the ~ E-W oriented Baribis Fault, which is ~ 130 km long, passes to the south of Jakarta, and is only ~ 20 km away at its nearest point. A primary objective of this study is to determine whether this fault is seismically active, and therefore, whether it might pose a threat to nearby population centers, including Jakarta in particular. A total of seven broadband instruments that spanned Jakarta and the surrounding region were installed between the end of July 2019 and August 2020, during which time we were able to detect and locate 91 earthquakes. Two earthquakes were located close to the Baribis Fault line, one of which was felt in Bekasi (southeast of Jakarta) where it registered II-III on the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) scale. The focal mechanism solutions of these events indicate the presence of a thrust fault, which is in good agreement with previous studies, and suggest that the Baribis Fault is active.

Recent borehole seismic deployments conducted along the Baribis Fault in northwestern Java reveal that it may be active. In this study, we exploit these data to locate proximal earthquakes using a relative relocation technique, estimate their moment magnitudes using a spectral fitting method and compute their focal mechanisms via waveform inversion. We observe that seismicity in the eastern part of the fault is significantly higher than in the west, where a previous GPS study of the region south of Jakarta demonstrated the existence of high compression rates. These observations imply that the western Baribis Fault is locked, and that neighbouring areas, including southern Jakarta and its surroundings, may be highly vulnerable to future sizeable earthquakes when accumulated elastic strain energy is eventually released during fault rupture. Significantly, the current generation of Indonesia’s national hazard maps have not considered seismicity along the Baribis Fault. Our new results therefore call for an urgent reappraisal of the seismic hazard in northwestern Java that carefully takes into account the Baribis Fault and its earthquake potential, particularly in light of its proximity to Jakarta, a megacity that lies at the heart of one of the most densely populated islands in the world.

High seismicity rates in and around West Java and Sumatra occur as a result of the Indo-Australian plate converging with and subducting beneath the Sunda plate. Large megathrust events associated with this process likely pose a major earthquake and tsunami hazard to the surrounding community, but further effort is required to help understand both the likelihood and frequency of such events. With this in mind, we exploit catalog seismic data sourced from the Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics (BMKG) of Indonesia and the International Seismological Centre (ISC) for the period April 2009 through to July 2020, in order to conduct earthquake hypocenter relocation using a teleseismic double-difference method. Our results reveal a large seismic gap to the south of West Java and southeast Sumatra, which is in agreement with a previous GPS study that finds the region to be a potential future source of megathrust earthquakes. To investigate this further, tsunami modeling was conducted in the region for two scenarios based on the estimated seismicity gaps and the existence of a backthrust fault. We show that the maximum tsunami height could be up to 34 m along the west coast of southernmost Sumatra and along the south coast of Java near the Ujung Kulon Peninsula. This estimate is comparable with the maximum tsunami height predicted by a previous study of southern Java in which earthquake sources were derived from the inversion of GPS data. However, the present study extends the analysis to southeast Sumatra and demonstrates that estimating rupture from seismic gaps can lead to reliable tsunami hazard assessment in the absence of GPS data.

The article "On the potential for megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis off the southern coast of West Java and southeast Sumatra, Indonesia", written by

The region of Jakarta and its vicinity is one of the least understood geological domains in Java Island, Indonesia. Yet, the region is one of the few places which are often impacted by earthquakes from the Indo-Australian Plate subduction zone as well as on land active faults. In this study, a borehole seismic experiment was designed to unravel the seismic activity of the Baribis Fault, which continues and leads to Jakarta. This passive source experiment was composed of seven broadband instruments that extended across the Jakarta region and surrounding areas. The experiment recorded seismic data from the end of July 2019 to August 2020. We located 91 events of hypocenter location determination of the data recording; one event was located closely to the Baribis Fault line that continues to Jakarta and was felt in Bekasi (Southeast of Jakarta) at up to II-III on the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) scale. The focal mechanism solution of this event shows an oblique thrust fault type. This event is evidence that the Baribis Fault is active.