IMPORTANCEThe capacity of pediatric hospitals to provide treatment to large numbers of patients during a large-scale disaster remains a concern. Hospitals are expected to function independently for as long as 96 hours. Reverse triage (early discharge), a strategy that creates surge bed capacity while conserving resources, has been modeled for adults but not pediatric patients.OBJECTIVE To estimate the potential of reverse triage for surge capacity in an academic pediatric hospital. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In this retrospective cohort study, a blocked, randomized sampling scheme was used including inpatients from 7 units during 196 mock disaster days distributed across the 1-year period from December 21, 2012, through December 20, 2013. Patients not requiring any critical interventions for 4 successive days were considered to be suitable for low-risk immediate reverse triage. Data were analyzed from November 1, 2014, through November 21, 2016. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Proportionate contribution of reverse triage to the creation of surge capacity measured as a percentage of beds newly available in each unit and in aggregate. RESULTS Of 3996 inpatients, 501 were sampled (268 boys [53.5%] and 233 girls [46.5%]; mean [SD] age, 7.8 [6.6] years), with 10.8% eligible for immediate low-risk reverse triage and 13.2% for discharge by 96 hours. The psychiatry unit had the most patients eligible for immediate reverse triage (72.7%; 95% CI, 59.6%-85.9%), accounting for more than half of the reverse triage effect. The oncology (1.3%; 95% CI, 0.0%-3.9%) and pediatric intensive care (0%) units had the least effect. Gross surge capacity using all strategies (routine patient discharges, full use of staffed and unstaffed licensed beds, and cancellation of elective and transfer admissions) was estimated at 57.7% (95% CI, 38.2%-80.2%) within 24 hours and 84.1% (95% CI, 63.9%-100%) by day 4. Net surge capacity, estimated by adjusting for routine emergency department admissions, was about 50% (range, 49.1%-52.6%) throughout the 96-hour period. By accepting higher-risk patients only (considering only major critical interventions as limiting), reverse triage would increase surge capacity by nearly 50%. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCEOur estimates indicate considerable potential pediatric surge capacity by using combined strategic initiatives. Reverse triage adds a meaningful but modest contribution and may depend on psychiatric space. Large volumes of pediatric patients discharged early to the community during disasters could challenge pediatricians owing to the close follow-up likely to be required.

Throughout history, battlefield medicine has led to advancements in civilian trauma care. In the most recent conflicts of Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan/Operation Iraqi Freedom, one of the most important advances is increasing use of point-of-injury hemorrhage control with tourniquets. Tourniquets are gradually gaining acceptance in the civilian medical world—in both the prehospital setting and trauma centers. An analysis of Emergency Medical Services (EMS) data shows an increase of prehospital tourniquet utilization from 0 to nearly 4,000 between 2008 and 2016. Additionally, bystander educational campaigns such as the Stop the Bleed program is expanding, now with over 125,000 trained on tourniquet placement. Because the medical community and the population at large has broader acceptance and training on the use of tourniquets, there is greater potential for saving lives from preventable hemorrhagic deaths.

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